Forum

Posts by "cat0nip"

View Member Profile
1999 Posts Total by "cat0nip":
1927 Posts by member
cat0nip
(Frankfurt, Germany)
72 Posts by Anonymous "cat0nip":
1...180181182183184185186187188189190191192193
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 16:38
In Thread: EUR
Everyone short USD short JPY long EUR ........no ECB will hike 25bp but Trichet will not hint more hikes. This is however what fx expects two or three more hikes in 2011.
Imo EUR is "overbought" and if Trichet doesn't hint more hikes ( already 25bp may be disastrous to growth in PIGS) i expect EURUSD selloff, to at least 140.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 15:42
In Thread: EUR
USDx drops hard
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 13:06
In Thread: EUR
FED has intervened at the height of Greece crises with dollar swaps . This is possibly not necessary because Ezone is going towards transfer union. In plain words, one member of the family earns money and far more members live on unemployment benefit checks issued from the well to do uncle. However the uncle didn't want his relatives to earn money.
So Dr.Ben says that's above my head.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 19:55
In Thread: USD
anyway FOMC had no direct hint to QE3 but didn't render it impossible as inflation spike transitory ... i.e. will be gone with the wind some time later... UST yields up despite US treasury
averts selling more debt not to bang head on debt ceiling.
Devoid of hints it hangs now on Trichet ... what if he takes a sick leave ?
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 18:20
In Thread: EUR
wait for FOMC minutes ... dovish stance is priced in USDx
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 14:03
In Thread: EUR
renewed weakness of EUR vs scandinavian currencies NOK SEK ( and also GBP) perhaps rumors Dr.Ben imitator Trichet rows back?
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 11:12
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Dr.Ben reads Trichet's speech manuscripts....vigilant on inflation ...
he said he expects an increase in commodity prices to create a transitory boost in U.S. inflation and that the central bank would act if hes proven incorrect.

That is not possible. Dr.Ben is not provable incorrect. Transitory can mean 10 years.
For commodity traders a difficult to assess situation. Oil? Politics & FED.
But silver.... looks like to go pop any time. I take a short in XAGUSD @38.6
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 19:44
In Thread: EUR
PIMCO's Gross, after selling US treasuries, now warns of new Euro crisis .
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 17:45
In Thread: USD
Yet ECB will hike because in the longer run ECB will be considered untrustworthy ( it is not trustworthy anyway) if they don't.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 17:32
In Thread: USD
Not agreed. If ECB does not hike EUR strengthens considerably. It is easy to figure out that even a 25bp hike causes large problems for Ezone banks because ( unlike in US) Ezone banks are major holders of troubled bonds. To counter the effect ECB must "print" even more liquidity to prevent undercapitalized banks from default. Thus a rate hike
a: does not reduce inflation
b: increases M3
c weakens Euro

Thus my bet is after ECB rate decision assumed 25bp hike short EURUSD around the peak 1.43
Report Reply
1...180181182183184185186187188189190191192193