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Posts by "cat0nip"

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1999 Posts Total by "cat0nip":
1927 Posts by member
cat0nip
(Frankfurt, Germany)
72 Posts by Anonymous "cat0nip":
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cat0nip
Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 16:13
In Thread: EUR
Bad economical US readings trigger new Q3 expectations...immediately after ISM USDx fell pip
later the FOMC minutes I think will not confirm QE3 good opportunity long USD
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 14:03
In Thread: EUR
renewed weakness of EUR vs scandinavian currencies NOK SEK ( and also GBP) perhaps rumors Dr.Ben imitator Trichet rows back?
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 11:12
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Dr.Ben reads Trichet's speech manuscripts....vigilant on inflation ...
he said he expects an increase in commodity prices to create a transitory boost in U.S. inflation and that the central bank would act if hes proven incorrect.

That is not possible. Dr.Ben is not provable incorrect. Transitory can mean 10 years.
For commodity traders a difficult to assess situation. Oil? Politics & FED.
But silver.... looks like to go pop any time. I take a short in XAGUSD @38.6
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 19:44
In Thread: EUR
PIMCO's Gross, after selling US treasuries, now warns of new Euro crisis .
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 17:45
In Thread: USD
Yet ECB will hike because in the longer run ECB will be considered untrustworthy ( it is not trustworthy anyway) if they don't.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 17:32
In Thread: USD
Not agreed. If ECB does not hike EUR strengthens considerably. It is easy to figure out that even a 25bp hike causes large problems for Ezone banks because ( unlike in US) Ezone banks are major holders of troubled bonds. To counter the effect ECB must "print" even more liquidity to prevent undercapitalized banks from default. Thus a rate hike
a: does not reduce inflation
b: increases M3
c weakens Euro

Thus my bet is after ECB rate decision assumed 25bp hike short EURUSD around the peak 1.43
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 13:43
In Thread: EUR
Simple Trichet has economists and Ezone banks arguing against a hike so he will hike but will talk cautiously not announcing further hikes.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 8:14
In Thread: EUR
EUR and USD sold off vs CHF
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 4, 2011 8:00
In Thread: EUR
a 25bp hike is fully priced after the repeatedly hawkish comments from ECB officials.
Although economists see a hike as a big mistake as PIIGS economies continue to go down.
I expect 25bps hike thursday accompanied by essentially dovish comments from Trichet
would make a good short entry from about a peak 143
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 2, 2011 11:22
In Thread: EUR
Apparently Bank of Korea has sold its USD reverves acquired during Japan bailout.
It may still be a joke because Korea is said to have bought Euro .
I noticed however JPY was bought, too.
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