Posts by "cat0nip"

adding more short EURUSD 1.4132
short EURJPY 115,16

G7 is not about to weaken JPY but to prevent Japan in dire need of cash selling US treasuries.
So G7 is about USD JPY is a side effect. This doesn't take into account a still possible nuclear disaster. The real winner here is the FED. Aside from this a bunch of professional optimists
begin only slowly to recognize that many products won't function with some hitech parts made in Japan. For example Apple needs LCD panels and CPU from Japan no one else has the know how and skill. BMW cars have a lot of electronic components made in Japan. And so on. And on.
My conclusion 100% chart free it follows with mathematical precision JPY rise is eventually unstopable .

IMF states no bailout Japan its up to BoJ.
Holding AUDJPY short the pair will be determined by AUD weakness and remains short should BoJ intervene ( I think BoJ is out of ammu)

The fundamental problems of Eur are simple, and in terms of money, those troubled assets
are held by Eurozone banks , and blow up the balance sheet of ECB. But the point is the involvement of Ezone banks. This is not the case in US nor in UK.
Thus ECB must constantly feed liquidity to banks to brush up their balance sheet and hide the fact these are undercapitalized.
The next is that EUr is soccer ball for wannabe politicians. One kicks it there another kicks it there and they say hey we have no idea how to play soccer but ECB is the goalkeeper.
Nothing of that is in accordance with the foundation treaty of the common currency.
Now the Japan crisis. Some overpaid officials are woken up with some effort and they say well
Japan no danger for super duper german industry. But it is. BMW VW Mercedes all of them rely on sophisticated processor and other chips made in Japan. Hardly any hi tech product that has no Japan made products somewhere.

Very obvious at the moment. Assume Gaddhafi wins back oil areas. Lybian oil will flow again and also nat gas to Italy. Saudi Arabia riots down for the moment, only Bahrein invaded by saudi troops could pose problem.
Japan is the second biggest importer of crude. But refineries damaged , inoperative for a long time. So less demand for crude. China will cut imports due to trade deficit. Thus wti short.
BUT: Japan needs big amounts of diesel (gasoil) to keep generators running as nukes will be inoperative. Thus: wti short gasoil long. These are my trades.