Posts by "daveo"

bund has potential ABC symmetry from 146.83 high to 141.25 low to 144.34 high to 138.74 target level with the actual low being at 138.40. Implications if validated new highs above 146.83 on continuous symbol. However this conflicts with popular opinion for risk-on expectations. Me, I know nufink.

So the party of the Tea Party out in the cold and Congress remain strangled. Back to big spending, ever increasing deficits, printing more and more money. God save the Ben. God save my savings:-). The path of global implosion remains fully in tact and bonds are up this morning.

Platinum made nice double top february/october. Ignoring stocks I have a feeling the world is now ready for a long period of deflation before inflation can resume. Watch the velocity of money in about 4 yrs time, maybe longer, for signs of impending inlation. What think you cat ? george?

Maybe stocks need one more push to new highs before one of two options commences. Option 1 is deep correction of at least 50% over short period of maybe 3 years. This is the preferred option. Option 2 is prolonged period of broadly sideways action for maybe 8/12 years. Making predictions is fun so long as we don't take ourselves too seriously.

gotcha, If that is true I have 69.96 for ABC symmetry so we agree the math. The 4:C went higher than I would like for this count but it did not breach the territory of W.1 so RNE rule in tact. With this darned 2:5:C being a complex structure we should find that when we arrive at the 4:5:C it will be a simple ABC structure to comply with the rule of alternation. I suspect the impending 3:5:C will at least test the 79 pivot low level or maybe 75 level. Above 101 would invalidate this count (current 90.44). The 127.2% ext would be at 58.83 but this is difficult to visualise bearing in mind the economics of viable production.

yes George, the oil, copper and transports are a better indication of the macro economic health of the global economy. Even so they are subject to spin off from the manipulations of stock markets, which in real terms should be valued less than half their current levels. Stock market values bear no resemblance to the underlying macroeco malaise, therefor we are all playing a silly game of make believe. Same thinkin here for the pound and the euro which are flirting with cloud cookoo land. So I guess it doesn't really pay to do too much thinkin about "value". Trading price action has to be king imo, unless one has a special short term speciality a la cat. Investing is a mugs game, we now live in a world of HFT and robots in which the average duration of an NYSE stock investment is 25 seconds. What would Ralph Nelson Elliott say about all this were he still alive. I feel him turning in his grave.