Posts by "djellal"

“The market has taken on board speculation that Kuroda will be the new BOJ governor and the expectation is that he will favor aggressive policy easing,”

yen is under pressure against all

Long cad across the board

Still long chfjpy

Djellal Djouad
good morning
Market O/N

Risk continued to trade weakly overnight with equities lower globally. The market still has fears over the Greek PSI deal, rising tensions in Iran leading to higher oil prices and a slowdown in China and other emerging markets. AUD finally managed to break down through it's recent range, we have seen realy money and prop type names buying the dips but this has been consistently met with model and leveraged names selling both AUDUSD and AUDJPY as we saw worse GDP data from Australia. Comments from RBA's Lowe signalled that unlike other CBs they are happy with a strong AUD in terms of keeping inflation stable, however they are leaving the door open to the possibility of a rate cut if it overshoots and will be looking closely at the unemployment rate for signs of this.
NZD saw a sharp correction following the break above the short term down trend line (0.8135) we still continue to favour selling on rallies as risk is under pressure but think that the correction may have some more legs in the short term, look to sell around 0.8250. Japanese investors were selling EURJPY again overnight which combined with heavy other cross JPY selling led to USDJPY filling in stops below 81.00, we also saw leveraged names selling USDJPY putting further downward pressure on it
EURUSD should still feel pressure to the downside as fears over PSI still loom, stops have been building above 1.3160 and it feels like we might have a squeeze higher to take these out before we start to see sellers emerge around 1.3200.
Market Orderbook

EUR - Topside stops 1.3230, offers above 1.3250. Downside small bids 1.3080, downside stops 1.3060.
GBP - Bids below 1.5610, otherwise light. EURGBP - Bids below 0.8320.
CHF - Offers 0.9230, topside stops 0.9290 - 0.9310. EURCHF - Offers scattered 1.2060 - 1.2140. Bids down to 1.2020, stops 1.2020 - 1.1850.
JPY - Stops above 81.30, below we have bids 80.40, downside stops 80.00, 79.50. EURJPY - Offers 109.20, otherwise light.
AUD - Offers 1.0600, 1.0725, downside stops 1.0500.
Data today
Norway 09:00 Industrial Production sa (Jan) m-o-m -2.30% -2.20% n/a
United States 13:15 ADP Employment Change (Feb) lvl n/a 170K 213K
New Zealand 20:00 RBNZ Official Cash Rate (Mar-8) % 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

Good luck!
Options - EURUSD vols were bid the entire day with spot heading south on the open in Europe, early on the day we saw some skew sellers, providing some supply to RRs. The main move higher was in NY, probably on the back of some flow that we haven't seen, 1m paid 10.8, 3m 11.45 and 1y closing at 12.6 (pretty much a 0.2 parallel shift across the curve from the open). Cable wasnt really in play, but the entire curve is higher given spot move and buyers across the curve.
PLN vols - market short of gamma - of note there is a large strike at 4.12 tmrw - and have seen a fair amount of buying intrests last two days trying to cover
TRY vols - open a touch softer across the curve - 1m from 11.4 yday to 11.15 , there are large barriers at 1.80 ( from range-binaries ) - decent two way interst in gamma region - still seeing a fair amount of buying interest

From Citi:
Seeing a bit usd usdjpy selling here 125+ for equity related client. http://www.bcftrader.com/news/real-time-news/