There's the EUR short catalyst... Moody's just cut Spain outlook. $1.30 here we come.... Spain CDS have been falling since the end of November, helping EUR/USD till now. That's likely to change.
Weak CPI/Housing today may signal game over to USD strength, esp if some sort of resolution can be brokered in Brussels. EU aside, Fed funds futures put in a reversal today, just as they signalled "buy-USD" on Nov 5th after strong NFP.
China-Japan currency warfare is here: China CASS Researcher Feng Zhaokui: Calls for China to buy more Japan assets to boost JPY as Chinese response to Japan in conflict involving the Senkaku Islands - Nikkei News
http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20100923D23JFA12.htm
Catch the overnight threat from China's sov wlth fnd CIC about "loose US policy". Might give the Fed something to think about. Delicate US-China dance this week of which is the dog and which is the tail...
BTW... really like your China-Japan theory. My only question is whether China would really risk derailing its own "goldilocks" with a deposit rate hike. Higher rates would only fan their own inflation bubble thru FDI, no?
Great insight on the "liquidity connection"... Bullish spurts seem to be most pronounced on risk-off days.
Here's a good reference for GLD etf holdings I use:http://www.exchangetradedgold.com/ BTW, its not primarily retail investors - funds run by Soros and Paulson are huge GLD holders.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(10 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(10 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(10 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (10 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (10 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (10 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(10 months ago)
Agree on a great long USD/JPY entry at these levels.
Spain CDS have been falling since the end of November, helping EUR/USD till now. That's likely to change.
China CASS Researcher Feng Zhaokui: Calls for China to buy more Japan assets to boost JPY as Chinese response to Japan in conflict involving the Senkaku Islands - Nikkei News http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20100923D23JFA12.htm
BTW... really like your China-Japan theory. My only question is whether China would really risk derailing its own "goldilocks" with a deposit rate hike. Higher rates would only fan their own inflation bubble thru FDI, no?
Here's a good reference for GLD etf holdings I use:http://www.exchangetradedgold.com/
BTW, its not primarily retail investors - funds run by Soros and Paulson are huge GLD holders.
Great stuff as always.
Cheers