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189 Posts Total by "macrosam":
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macrosam
(United States)
5 Posts by Anonymous "macrosam":
 
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macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 10:44
In Thread: GBP
1.56 - 1.57 is unlikely, just pointing out what I see as the next trendline resistance now that the 2-month down trendline was broken. However, I still like Ashraf's 1.53 resistance level better as that must first be broken. The recent runs in GBP and EUR are great examples of why entries and stops are so critical. I do believe we will see 1.45 and 1.32 in GBP/USD and EUR/USD respectively but the timing of when to enter can (and has) shake you out of an othewise great trade.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 19:02
In Thread: EUR
I'm thrilled to read that, Ashraf because I am still short!

I do think that we can see a large back up in US rates with the combination of NFP and next week's US treasury supply in the back end (10s, 30s). 10yr rates can get crushed and this would complement Ashraf's 10yr Bund/UST analysis.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 17:47
In Thread: EUR
1.3785 was support in June 2009 that led to the extended rally and first trendline that I started to follow. It is also prior resistance (along with the down trend line) and if the trend line breaks here, I would expect it to be retested. This is just my modest analysis, nothing complicated.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 16:30
In Thread: EUR
Down trendline being challenged. If it breaks, I am out and will wait for 1.38 before attempting another short but if this holds....
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 16:02
In Thread: GBP
No real conviction to short GBP/USD until the 1.56 - 1.57 area, thinking that second down trendline started from Nov 2009's high will be what holds now that this more recent downtrendline that originated in January 2010 has been broken.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 12:02
In Thread: GBP
The recent USD weakness is expected. After the golden cross Ashraf pointed out, hit resistance around 82.00 but the recent decline would still leave it ready to bounce off the uptrendline for a retest of 82.00 and then 83.00. The USD cannot go straight up for too long so these short-term pullbacks are expected.

Closed my GBP/USD short. Would look to re-enter GBP short mid-term but not short-term.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 1:02
In Thread: EUR
Ashraf, do you monitor short-interest and how often do you take it into consideration? For example, during this recent countertrend rally from the high 1.32s to the mid-1.35s, would you expect/look for a reduction in short-interest? How would you interpret a reduction, or an essentially unchanged level in relation to forecasting the recent covering rally?

Thank you!
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 0:56
In Thread: GBP
Short GBP but a bit more cautious, watching GSP/EUR and think could retest resistance line of what may be a symmetrical triangle in the making. UK growth could surprise relative to EU and wonder if GBP and EUR will start to diverge a bit. UK worse off re: current fiscal position than EU in aggregate but may be more of a medium-term play? Personally (just an opinion) think short-term UK gets a bit a a reward vs. the EU for being prescient enough to decline entry into the euro and that there is no issue of sovereign unity.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 0:50
In Thread: EUR
Greece planning on issuing a USD bond before end of May, not sure if this will be 3yr or 10yr but would expect shorter tenor., reading that may try to raise 11.6bn euros. Falling EUR would benefit Greece cross-currency swap by being able to get more EUR post-convers, ion.
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