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macrosam
(United States)
5 Posts by Anonymous "macrosam":
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macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Jun 3, 2010 18:31
In Thread: EUR
Open interest for the June puts at the 1.22 strike decreased from over 18000 to a little over 12000, so 6000 positions have been closed out prior to expiry of June options tomorrow. It looks like another 1568 traded today though the composition of that volume (between new positions and closed positions) is yet to be revealed to us. However, assuming that all 1568 were closed positions, there would still be over 10000 open interest so there are players who are short a lot of put options and this close to expiry, they are short a ton of gamma. I suspect some of this "treading water" action may be pin related, but should the pin fail, the down move could accelerate furiously as guys will have to hedge their short gamma position by selling futures (or buying back those short puts).

We may hang in there today but I expect the road to 1.16 to resume after today (assuming the pinning will hold).
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Jun 2, 2010 16:41
In Thread: EUR
Ashraf, what impact on EUR/USD do you see the Fed - ECB swap line having being capped at around 123 - 124 bps?
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Jun 1, 2010 20:38
In Thread: GBP
There is a different driver of today's GBP/USD rally that is more acquisition related. Here's a hint: It was also a driver of the GBP/USD sell-off on March 1st.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
May 10, 2010 12:02
In Thread: EUR
agreed, catnip. The logic I apply is this: if it is impractical to bind dissimilar, incongruent economies, politics, and people to a currency union such as the euro, why would a return to the gold standard or gold as currency - binding the global economies, politics, and people - be any more viable?
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 28, 2010 22:51
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Looking to short AUD/USD shortly:

By Nichola Saminather
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Australian house prices grew at a
slower pace in the first quarter from the last three months of
2009 as the central banks five rate increases since September
took effect, Australian Property Monitors said.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 27, 2010 22:41
In Thread: EUR
4% has been a level of support specifically for Asian buyers. I expect some backing up of rates after this week's front-end auctions as room will have to be made for the upcoming (two weeks) auction of 3s, 10s, and 30s.

macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 27, 2010 13:39
In Thread: EUR
Back in the saddle again! Fantastic video, Ashraf.

GGB 2yr yield at 14.99%. Still too cheap.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 22:47
In Thread: EUR
Although it did not come with a loss (rather a decent gain), I was wrong and am covering my short position. I am not saying that Greece and the rest of the EU are out of the woods, but I will not be betting against them at this point any longer (though I will be opportunistically watching!).
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:49
In Thread: EUR
I'll stay with my charted course but feel free to go long at the close.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:41
In Thread: EUR
Note that these are only my rationale and I realize I could very well be wrong.

1) Any bailout package has to be led by the IMF, but must include EU participation as well. This creates a very difficult proposition, in my opinion. The IMF will come in senior to the EU, which will be a tough sell, assuming the EU can even participate legally in any form of bailout, IMF led or not.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7591027/Greek-aid-in-doubt-as-German-professors-prepare-court-challenge.html

The EU part of the bailout is not yet ready, assuming it will ever be ready.

2) The U.S. has veto power at the IMF and will likely not allow a bailout until the EU portion is committed. See #1 above. The U.S. will see the responsibility of assisting Greece as being the EU's.

3) Even if #1 and #2 occur, the IMF will likely impose harsher austerity measures on Greece than the ones currently in place. See Latvia (2009). Greece will resist even more than they already are now.

4) The May 19 deadlines does not address CURRENT nor does it address future bills. It is to repay money already spent. The realization of this will set in even deeper the closer we approach and the more difficult bailout coordination becomes.

Enough of these monkey shines.
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