I enjoyed your presentation. I agree that the Fed is facing very grave problems with trying to keep bond yields down.
There are a few points about the dollar I would like to hear your opinion on...
I believe that the rise in bond yields is due to an inflation premium being placed on interest rates.
And this is why, when the public expects further inflation, Fed increases in reserves are raising, rather than lowering, the rate of interest.
As you stated the Fed is left with two choices, stop monetizing debt or increase their efforts. The market is saying increases in Fed purchasing are leading to an increasing risk of inflation and rising yields. The opposite of what the Fed wants.
When the acceleration of inflationary credit finally stops, the higher interest rate will put a sharp end to the boom in the capital markets, and an inevitable recession liquidate unsound investments of the inflationary boom.
The currency P/E on the S&P is 120.... I can't imagine paying for stock whose current rate of earning would take 120 years to pay back my original purchase price.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090522.gif
Currently, there seem to be 2 opposing views on the EURUSD. One being that there is as the debt imploding there is a scarcity of USD and as such it is and, as long as this process continues, will be increasing in value. In addition, as there are problems with E. Europe EUR may collapse or cease to exist.
The other one points out that the USD rally will end when Europe's financial system starts collapsing. Investors will realize that the EU won't print money to bail out its banks, and that will send the euro soaring against the dollar.
What is your take on the EURUSD an where do you see it going in the next 2-3 years?
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(11 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(11 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(11 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (11 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (11 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (11 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(11 months ago)
إستعمال تحليل الإنترماركت والتحليل الفني الكلاسيكي لتداول الذهب و الناسداك و السندات. شاهد هنا
Using intermarket technicals analysis to trade XAUUSD Nasdaq100 and Bonds.Watch here.
Latest Hot-Chart - May 16
Dax 200 DMA Deviation
You remember we went short Dax40 in late March based on the 13% 200 DMA extension, which gave us at least a 500-pt gain.
View Hot-Chart..
There are a few points about the dollar I would like to hear your opinion on...
I believe that the rise in bond yields is due to an inflation premium being placed on interest rates.
And this is why, when the public expects further inflation, Fed increases in reserves are raising, rather than lowering, the rate of interest.
As you stated the Fed is left with two choices, stop monetizing debt or increase their efforts. The market is saying increases in Fed purchasing are leading to an increasing risk of inflation and rising yields. The opposite of what the Fed wants.
When the acceleration of inflationary credit finally stops, the higher interest rate will put a sharp end to the boom in the capital markets, and an inevitable recession liquidate unsound investments of the inflationary boom.
I believe that commodity prices have risen due to inflationary expectations and China stockpiling. However what happens when their reserves are full? It takes years to build additional storage tanks for oil etc.... http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/03/reuters-china-oil-goverment-reserve.html
The currency P/E on the S&P is 120.... I can't imagine paying for stock whose current rate of earning would take 120 years to pay back my original purchase price. http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090522.gif
Currently, there seem to be 2 opposing views on the EURUSD. One being that there is as the debt imploding there is a scarcity of USD and as such it is and, as long as this process continues, will be increasing in value. In addition, as there are problems with E. Europe EUR may collapse or cease to exist.
The other one points out that the USD rally will end when Europe's financial system starts collapsing. Investors will realize that the EU won't print money to bail out its banks, and that will send the euro soaring against the dollar.
What is your take on the EURUSD an where do you see it going in the next 2-3 years?
Cheers and keep up a good work!