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120 Posts Total by "ptaczek":
110 Posts by member
ptaczek
(Brno, Czech Republic)
10 Posts by Anonymous "ptaczek":
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ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 5, 2010 20:35
In Thread: GBP
@redstone: it's a regular FED meeting and IF they rise discount rate it will be most likely after today's close and it will be accompanied by apparent price moves ;)

@Desi: the 1.53 has been pierced briefly today but we stay sub 1.53 so far. Personally I'm short, mainly because the positive US data but there is now the possibility of Conservative Party win which should be GBP positive if I understand it correctly.
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 5, 2010 18:35
In Thread: GBP
@redstone: it's hard to say until the big players enter the market on Tuesday. It could still test the recent high at 1.5350-80. If the FED rise the discount rate today it could as well drop because the hike would be perceived (again) as a step towards tighter monetary policy aka FED funds rate hike.
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 5, 2010 12:54
In Thread: EUR
@Desi: indeed, a very nice one. Stage set for 1.32 by the end of this week :)
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 4, 2010 21:58
In Thread: Central Banks (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB, RBA, etc)
Ashraf,

Geithner delayed currency report, "giving" China some extra time to consider Yuan. What's your view of this situation and the possible outcome? My guess is that China will revalue it's currency eventually but not now. I don't think China will do anything just because US (or any other country) says so.

pta
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 12:45
In Thread: JPY
@nzvik: COT data lag a little, also banks doesn't have to reveal all data for some time. But thanks for your view.

@catnip: could you tell me more about your trade planning according to bond & credit markets, please? Post it here or send me a mail at ptaczek@gmail.com Im interested in what you usually do, how you evaluate the data and where do you acquire the data :)
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 11:38
In Thread: GBP
@ING: well, it's NFP week, it's also Q1 end week and it's also Easter week with long weekend. Market is shrugging off news after news, waiting for tomorrow. And it's a bank holiday for everyone but USD and JPY :) and I really don't know what can we expect under given circumstances.
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 11:34
In Thread: JPY
@catnip AUDJPY is at it's last resistance around 86.20. It looks more like caution rather than end of JPY carry. But .. ;) nobody knows exactly
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 11:31
In Thread: JPY
@said: Thank you for the LIBOR reminder and the yield curve note.

@nzvik: I see. 3rd STD is far-away from a mean, no questions about it. But considering what Said wrote about the speculator-driven rally, I don't see USDJPY short as a safe bet right now. Maybe it's because Im looking for longer-term trades. Surely, USDJPY has some little downside probability, but given all the fundamental clues, I think there is a much bigger wave gaining strength.
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 9:39
In Thread: JPY
@nzvik: what are the reasons behind your USDJPY shorts?
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 8:39
In Thread: JPY
JPY selloff continues despite of positive Tankan and negative ADP yesterday. Major Asian indexes up in Asia session. Any ideas anyone? Are we going to witness even more Yen devaluation?
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