Interest-rate futures on Tuesday pushed back expectations of when the Federal Reserve will increase its target policy rate until July 2011, after the Federal Open Market Committee downgraded its economic outlook and reiterated it would keep rates low for an extended period. Before the statement from officials, fed funds futures had reflected a first increase in rates next May. Fed fund futures maturing in July are now the next to indicate rates may rise from the central bank's current target rate range of zero to 0.25%. The July 2011 contract traded at 99.70, indicating traders see rates moving to 0.30 by then. The Fed typically moves its target rate in quarter-percentage point increments, while fed funds futures settle at the average price for the month in which they mature. When the Fed last met in June, traders expected improving economic data to allow officials to raise the funds rate in early 2011. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/futures-traders-push-back-fed-hike-until-july-2011-2010-08-10-1443250?dist=countdown
Hedge funds boosted their holdings of crude oil futures and options last week to the highest level in 13 weeks. Net-long positions on crude oil rose by 25,965 contracts to 135,833 in the week ended Aug. 3, according to the Commitments of Traders report Aug. 6 by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
There was another increase in non-commercial long positions, so money continues to flow into the oil markets and a lot of the commodity markets, said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. That tends to keep prices above what fundamental reality dictates.
Crude oils monthlong rally may propel prices to a 20-month intraday high of $88.17 a barrel by the end of September, according to technical analysis by Blake Robben, a strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago.
This is a classic example of the multi-vector nature of the interconnected markets! The weaker dollar will supposedly help demand, and yet the CL often is pulled strongly by the dow and s and p as of late, and they could be all over the map, with Sept statistically the worse month for the S and P and August in second place. Oil also is quite affected by the Euro at times. And then we head into the peak of the hurricane season. So many vectors pushing and pulling on CL, and yet I could see it end September close to where it is now, lets say 81. But in the meantime I plan on riding usable waves up or down intraday!
Have any of you owned some of the 1,000 franc swiss notes? I am intrigued by the possibility of being able to carry so much financial punch with so few bills. And if so, have you had any difficulty exchanging them in your travels?
An important article from the Wall Street Journal regarding the demand for the Euro:
Gangsters, drug dealers and money launderers appear to be playing their part in helping shore up the financial stability of the euro zone.
That's thanks to their demand, according to European authorities, for high-denomination euro bank notes, in particular the 200 and 500 bills. The European Central Bank issues these notes for a hefty profit that is welcome at a time when its response to the financial crisis has called its financial strength into question.
The high-value bills are increasingly "making the euro the currency of choice for underground and black economies, and for all those who value anonymity in their financial transactions and investments," wrote Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, in a recent research report. The business of issuing euro notes, produced at almost zero cost, is "wildly profitable" for the ECB, Mr. Buiter wrote. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704532204575397543634034112.html
I think it could break that line if the US tanks tomorrow on the jobs report, the Aussie can periodically be a proxy for the US market, and at those times seems influenced by it even beyond commodities like wheat, copper, gold. There are days it tracks the US amazingly well, we will see how tomorrow unfolds.
Yes, the various aforementioned factors are indeed influencing the price of oil--somewhat. I study these factors based on my academic training. But quite often I read articles which purport to expalin why something went up, while I had been watching the charts, and most important was that at one critical point the resistance was broken just enough, and then longs piled on while shorts were forced to quickly cover their positions. Technical factors alone can account for quite a bit of price movement, traders' anxieties in the face of rising prices and simple momentum take over for days or even weeks sometimes, regardless of fundamentals or logical reasons or explanations. There are many complex situations where the whys will never really be understood, humans are sometimes very illogical in their behavior, but astute traders will simply take advantage of the movement.
Like I thought could very well happen, CL has jumped considerably this morning. If it goes much higher then it could end up creating a short squeeze, and push into levels closer to what it saw in june, a critical juncture now.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(10 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(10 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(10 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (10 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (10 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (10 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(10 months ago)
تجنب الخطأ الشائع المتمثل في خلط مؤشرات الناسداك وداوجونز و الاس ان بي وإليكم كيفية تفاعله بشكل مختلف مع تذبذبات في عوائد السندات ليست كل مؤشرات الأسهم متشابهة. شاهد الفيديو
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields -Details in video description.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/futures-traders-push-back-fed-hike-until-july-2011-2010-08-10-1443250?dist=countdown
There was another increase in non-commercial long positions, so money continues to flow into the oil markets and a lot of the commodity markets, said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. That tends to keep prices above what fundamental reality dictates.
Crude oils monthlong rally may propel prices to a 20-month intraday high of $88.17 a barrel by the end of September, according to technical analysis by Blake Robben, a strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago.
The October contract, which becomes the front month Aug. 23, has been trading in an uptrend, a pattern of higher peaks and higher valleys, since touching a low of $72.15 on July 6, Robben said. A line drawn from the July 6 low to the July 28 low of $76.33 shows support at $78.35 as of today, Robben said. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-09/oil-rises-first-time-in-four-days-as-equities-fuel-optimism-over-recovery.html
This is a classic example of the multi-vector nature of the interconnected markets! The weaker dollar will supposedly help demand, and yet the CL often is pulled strongly by the dow and s and p as of late, and they could be all over the map, with Sept statistically the worse month for the S and P and August in second place. Oil also is quite affected by the Euro at times. And then we head into the peak of the hurricane season. So many vectors pushing and pulling on CL, and yet I could see it end September close to where it is now, lets say 81. But in the meantime I plan on riding usable waves up or down intraday!
Gangsters, drug dealers and money launderers appear to be playing their part in helping shore up the financial stability of the euro zone.
That's thanks to their demand, according to European authorities, for high-denomination euro bank notes, in particular the 200 and 500 bills. The European Central Bank issues these notes for a hefty profit that is welcome at a time when its response to the financial crisis has called its financial strength into question.
The high-value bills are increasingly "making the euro the currency of choice for underground and black economies, and for all those who value anonymity in their financial transactions and investments," wrote Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, in a recent research report. The business of issuing euro notes, produced at almost zero cost, is "wildly profitable" for the ECB, Mr. Buiter wrote.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704532204575397543634034112.html
Very true words, those! The markets are so complex, sometimes reasons and directions are fairly obvious, but there is also randomness.
"Chinas banking regulator told lenders last month to conduct a new round of stress tests to gauge the impact of residential property prices falling as much as 60 percent in the hardest-hit markets, a person with knowledge of the matter said."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-04/chinese-regulator-said-to-tell-banks-to-test-for-60-drop-in-home-prices.html