Posts by "rob"

My 2 cents - On Yen - anyone who would have predicted a job loss of only 11K and a DROP in the unemployment rate to 10% would have been ripped a new one - even from the bulls. It appears to me that Yen downside emerged because it looked like the US (and perhaps world) was making an enormous turning point. If in fact the world economy was viewed in such a way, who would buy the Yen. In fact, you would sell the Yen, which is precisely what happened. If people didn't begin selling Yen, then a short squeeze in the Yen crosses must have occurred, perhaps both.
Economic data, especially NFP's is ALWAYS going to be a marker-mover NO MATTER WHAT the fundamentals were before going into it. Markets are ridiculously impulsive, especially these days. But then again, when it can be explained after the fact, it usually does make at least some sense.
I was too darn focused on the USD, that I didn't buy the Yen crosses, and almost want to kick myself for it. Oh well, more opportunities abound...with Ashraf's help - thank you!

Anyhow, Ashraf - I suppose we need to wait and see what happens before speculating on how US NFP's will affect the market going forward? Thoughts? I'm sure you'll write an article on it anyway. Thanks.

Hi Ashraf,

Thanks for taking the time to do the 55-minute webinar. Very helpful! About the EUR/USD-Oil ratio. If it retraces to the -15% lows like the last two cycles, where would that put the rate for EUR/USD, or is that too difficult to say. ALSO - it looks like in the last two cycles, the 1st was about 1+1/2 months and the 2nd was about 2+1/2 months. Would it be reasonable to say that this next one might then hit the -15% at about mid-late December - assuming it does. Thanks again for your time and work.

Hi Ashraf,

Not the most exciting question, but here goes anyway. The dynamics of EUR/CHF?? I really can't figure them out. I would think that it would go up with risk appetite, but it seems to go down. Am I missing something? Is it that people pull money out of EUR/USD and then put it into EUR/CHF with falling appetite? And vice versa with rising appetite. I would just suspect the low-yielding CHF to down with rising appetite. I know it's not something to be concerned with, considering the SNB's key levels. Anyhow thought I'd ask.

Thanks Ashraf, and very nice Nikkei/Dow analysis!

Ashraf - I'm hosting a FX/Intermarket comedy show and you'd better be there! See twitter everyone!