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Rob
(New York, United States)
33 Posts by Anonymous "rob":
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Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 17:07
In Thread: Unusual FX Action?
Interesting redstone - I wonder if that's because they're expecting fundamentals in Japan to deteriorate. Also, Japan's expected 0.9 GDP turned out to be 0.6 as you probably already know. I'm definitely sticking with the Yen. But I wouldn't be surprised if the USD rallies. I'm still wondering when Citi and BoA are going to have to deal with trillions of dollars worth of toxic "assets" and scare everybody senseless. I'm not sure about this market, especially the volumes -- we could go further, obviously, but I think the big question is "correction?" or "range-bound?" in equities. The former being USD and JPY bullish in my opinion.

If 76 on USD index holds - I think that's going to be a very bullish signal for the dollar

You can see today, that all Yen crosses overshot in the past weeks by a lot! The dow is only down about 20 points and the Yen is skyrocketing.

Also, we may just be dealing with key technical levels --- if I'm not mistaken we've seen a 50% retracement in the S&P and 38% in DOW.

BTW - Did that article give any good explanation? Is it because they think risk appetite is on the rise (hence sell Yen) --- and US fundamentals doing better (hence buy dollar)?
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 16:40
In Thread: Unusual FX Action?
Hey Ashraf,

You are either a) psychic or b) everyone reads this site, and you're definitely c) a great analyst --- I'm saying this because just after you published the article, everything you said basically got exacerbated.

2 more things if you have time-
1) Would you agree that it's now looking likely we'll see the 148.00 in GBP/JPY?

2) A good stop for AUD/USD? Perhaps 0.8680? --- It is REALLY Struggling to break above 0.8660-70 as you know - I may even double down, but it's too soon to do that.

I'm still a USD bull if equities tank. And if they do, I think the Dollar will rise dramatically - a thought or tow on that would be great as well. Thanks as always.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 13:50
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
Hey Ashraf,

Glad you brought up the Dollar weakness coinciding with Yen strength - I certainly noticed that as well. Looks like we need some more significant damage in equities to see if the dollar resumes strength associated with risk aversion.
On that note, how do you feel about the AUD/USD? Are you still determining it because of the changes/interruptions in correlations of the dollar? Although AUD fundamentals have deteriorated as you've mentioned. I've been short, perhaps for too "long". I know you mentioned .8100 this month - has that changed. Thanks and enjoy the weekend Ashraf.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 10, 2009 18:03
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
Hey Ashraf,

Would you say that GBP/JPY has broken through it's declining trend-line and is heading up? I'm looking at the daily chart. Are you still sticking with GBP bearishness despite the BoE decision today? Thanks
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 10, 2009 2:22
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
I agree asad, but it sure can be frustrating to be rational in an irrational market!
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 9, 2009 19:40
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
What's anyone's thoughts about shorting EUR/JPY? Seems like the EUR is holding its own these days -
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 9, 2009 15:05
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
Is the FX market teaching the USD a lesson? JPY gains and USD staying beaten down. For now at least.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 9, 2009 2:35
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
Asad - you just got your "Cowboy Short" right when Shanghai opened up!
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 9, 2009 1:04
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
FXHandler and cougr - thanks so much for the input.

Does anyone think a possible reverse head and shoulders may play out in the weekly SPY chart? Or do I just need to wash my hair? Ashraf, I know you don't see that as a possibility.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 8, 2009 21:31
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
Potential Head and Shoulders in AUD/USD - more apparent on the 4hr chart. Neckline at 82.50 - left shoulder at 85.00-85.50. Perhaps the shoulder is not high enough though? Would anyone agree? Feel free to let me know if you disagree as well. I'm don't claim to be a good technical analyst. Gold and commodities (and stocks) would obviously need a pull-back as well for this to pan-out.
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