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Posts by "speculator"
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Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
q3 is not far and would you not expect markets to hold tight well before? At the moment it seems that traders dont want to get caught in a dollar bear trap.
For stocks and commodities i like to listen to investment banks because the market cap is much smaller and it is mainly consumer/institutionally driven. Many banks predicted year end on S&P to end between 900 - 1200 which many thought was impossible given the state of the world economy and financial market panic mode.
For fx (medium - long term) you can't rely on anyone as the market is too big and there are MANY factors/players that are being played at one time and although traders help move the market they do not wholly cos there are commercial and central bank factors that you cannot predict. Look at the predicted at start of year and you see currency analysts all over the place and they are constantly revising. It is a much harder price to predict than stocks. For example, Golman and Citi are forecasting the dollar to resume bear trend into 2010 Q1 and they predict $1.55/euro in Q1. Their forecasters are rubbish and are getting paid to guess a few figures and issue their notes to clients. Barclays and Goldman also predicted israeli shekel/dollar to hit 3.5 by end of year only a few months ago and it is now 3.8 and rising.
this would conculude that gold is a speculative dollar carry driven metal and for the meantime conintues to be SELL rated.
Ron rosen in november concluded that gold bugs will be 'roasted' as the dollar resumes its bull trend.
remember, track dxy not anything else although dxy is highly correlated with euro/usd due to majority weighting in index. so the fall of euro against dollar is likely to drag the other majors along and unwind the carry trade.