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804 Posts Total by "speculator":
22 Posts by member
SPECULATOR
(LONDON, United Kingdom)
782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
1...66676869707172737475767778798081
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 22, 2009 22:33
In Thread: Speculators' Futures FX Positions
we are likely to see a lot of volatility in dollar pairs this year due to huge differences in bank 4casts this year.so expect to be shocked when funny things do happen. but yes risk aversion is benefiting dollar but less so with pound more with cad.

thanks
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 22, 2009 22:31
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
sorry i mean to say we are in a us dollar bull market bear and the bear started in early 2000 and ended last year. but i think many think this will continue forever and it wont as there is absolutely no replacement for dollar for a long while.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 22, 2009 22:28
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
ashraf,

i do respect your views highly.

but im affraid i think 1.75 is highly unlikely this year as i believe:

us government yield spreads against uk will increased attracting dollar flows
uk housing market data will worsen after a summer temporary jump
us is in better political shape than uk
uk/us stocks will fall at least 10% from here attracting flight to us dollar safety
we are in a dollar bear market rally. the bear market started early 2000
europe will underperform us economy
foreigners will not abandon us assets for a long time

however, i understand there is abnormally wide range of 4casts out there especially against eur/dollar but i think dollar will start to climb higher against euro and pound.

thanks
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 21:26
In Thread: Exiting the Exit Strategy
the higher us government yields go the greater the dollar is bound to rebound. As this will attract flows to dollar fixed interest and cause a huge slow down in investment expenditures and drag down stocks all dollar positives.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 21:22
In Thread: Where will EURUSD close by end of June?
it is in the interest of the world for a strong dollar to help both exporters and longer term interest rates down. I can't see the dollar going down against the euro beyond 1.45 as too many issues with europe. Although speculators net long of euro. It doesnt mean much as much of that could be hedging currency exposures rather than pure speculation.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 0:28
In Thread: Speculators' Futures FX Positions
http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN1945979420090619

THE LINK above shows recent speculative positions with the dollar.

seems like euro is being less bullish this week

pound more bullish ( still net short)

yeh bearish

canadian bullish
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 20, 2009 20:43
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
Can't be bearish on dollar as stocks will be down and dollar currently expensive with too much positivity built in markets at present. Markets will remain hot only during the summer
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 17, 2009 22:27
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
the pound vs dollar is being supported by relatively low unemployment in eurozone and seen to be the first economy out of recession and of course a recent move against high risk aversion.

i think sterling's run has run out of steam and will for sure not pass 1.70 as risk aversion is out there and will only get worse after stocks enter a large correction over the next few months.

for now i cant see 1.40s but early 1.50s is my target for year end:

1 increasing risk aversion globally to increase flight away from sterling vs dollar

2 government debt issues hanging over credibility of uk economy

its easy to sometimes extrapolate short trends but you can be awfully wrong by getting carried away.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 17, 2009 11:24
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
do not bet against the dollar and feel that recent weakness will continue. The rest of the year will see risk aversion where commodity currencies will fall.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 17, 2009 11:23
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
do not bet against the dollar and feel that recent weakness will continue. The rest of the year will see risk aversion where commodity currencies will fall.
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