Posts by "speculator"

ashraf, funds will probably flow into householders once real estate starts to rise as owners feel wealthier. this should improve consumption led by borrowing from banks. so my theory is we need a real estate turnaround to cause velocity of money to improve etc and cash feed into the real economy. but suppose this exactly happens, with rising yields there may not be an effect in broad indices as corporate earnings will rise (led by by househole consumption) to offset rising borrowing costs.

i think thats why house prices are such important economic measures. we need a turnaround there first for inflation to come about.

sorry i think my key is broken dollar/pound

sorry should read $/

ashraf,

constistently rising longer term yields should imply increasing inflation expectations for the future. if we continue the rising yield curve trend everything else equal, could composite equities indices be a poor longer term investment? what is your view in light of sharp monetrary base injections.

my view is that if the real estate markets dont rise well which be built on growth, confidence, lending and reducing unemployment it is unlikely that the injections will offset global wealth destruction in the real estate sector. real estate does make up the bulk of personal wealth for many countries. so maybe inflation will kick off sharply when real estate is starting to rise. but would the be positive for stocks? obiously would be positive for commodity biased stocks.

thanks

ashraf hope so in my case. I need a price below 1.46 for cable this year. The sterling rally took me by surprise as i got my targets to be too ambitious towards 1.40. However not sure it will be that easy to break below 1.60 even tho there is not much in it. Stocks have been advancing otherwise would be easy to break below. Do you see 1.40 this year? although dollar may be bearish uk may have -ve shocks