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Posts by "speculator"

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804 Posts Total by "speculator":
22 Posts by member
SPECULATOR
(LONDON, United Kingdom)
782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 5, 2009 8:08
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
seems like broad sterling weakness is settling in rather than dollar strength. investors are getting scared about political uncertainties in the uk. could this be a temporary weakness? my opinion is we may go sideways for a bit from here subject to equity/political moves.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 23:22
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
the pound has high chance of collapsing should it fall below 1.60 within next few days.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 16:36
In Thread: Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves
ashraf, seen.
still bearish on global stocks or any particular markets?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 15:19
In Thread: Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves
fair enough but how does the most trader pair measure broad dollar strength? its only a relative price between the two most used currencies and excludes emerging market influences etc. would usdx be a fairer gauge?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 14:44
In Thread: Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves
briefly explain why eur/usd is a better measurement for the dollar than USD index.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 14:10
In Thread: Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves
ashraf,
the downtrend is based on an assumption of near term growth. i must say i only concerntrate on gbp/usd so when i talk about dollar strength i mean with gbp.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 13:15
In Thread: Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves
the problem is that price movements largely reflect surprises (news) that cant always be predicted. So in my option it is very difficult to accurately time longer trends. i think the dollar will be a bad bet after economies grow nicely not before. the current dollar bearishness (short term) is overdone and corrections will belarge this month to the dollar's benefit.
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 3, 2009 16:52
In Thread: Speculators' Futures FX Positions
could the dip in cable be a new downtrend or buying opportunity? ashraf what do you think.
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 3, 2009 16:51
In Thread: Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
Cable has lots of resistance especially political at the moment. very risky to bet against it now with the dollar. coupled with more than likely large equity corrections its not worth it.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 28, 2009 1:01
In Thread: Dollar Slashed as Fed Goes Shopping
the steepening of the longer end of the yield curve is stocks negative as the cost of capital in the us becomes more expensive for corps and mortgage borrowers. this is likely to impact corporate profitability including personal borrowing costs as worsen the real estate market and bank profits. this could cause a possible inflow in to the short end of the yield curve with very short durations. this was maybe why the dollar rose due to risk aversion.

it is clear that the government bonds are pricing higher future inflation probably due to a combination of nearer term economic recovery and increase in the us money supply but i think mainly the later.

ta
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