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SPECULATOR
(LONDON, United Kingdom)
782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
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SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
May 19, 2009 10:34
In Thread: Oil to Underperform Metals
H2 will be a different story i think but certainly more room for cable to rise as well as global stocks. cable could overshoot PPP exchange rate 1.56 big mac index very soon and then take corrective movement down.

now that stocks are looking expensive to current earnings we are bound to get downards pressure in the near future but when nobody knows as there is too much investor herding right now.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
May 19, 2009 10:31
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
it was inevitable that we would break $1.5380/. I can easy see $1.56/ this week. And moves are strongly linked to investors confidence in the stock markets. I think economic data is not being priced in as much as equity flows for CABLE.

The investment banks are doing a very good job in propping up risk currencies by sending speculative client notes about how cheap the pound is and british real real estate in non-uk currency terms etc.

at the end of the day, the investment banks have a huge impact on capital and forex markets. i think spx target of 1000 (i believe is year end target for a few investment banks) will be hit sometime soon and correction would only then take place.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 18, 2009 21:07
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
the market is irrational and currently expensive for the earnings they are providing. So we are likely to get a pullback but too difficult to say when. market can stay irrational for extended times and i think it is too difficult to assume patterns will be repeated at this stage.

theres quite a mix of sentiment out there on equitues but far less so on currencies. Lots of Invetsment banks are predicting a sterling bull market but then again they are not usually right but they help investors speculate the price towards their target.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
May 18, 2009 18:11
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
1.48
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 18, 2009 13:34
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
in my opinion the following data would in order of importance impact $/gbp in the short term.

equities performance excluding emerging markets
banking sector shocks/financial scams/liquidity issues
Uk mortgage approvals
official house price moves
GDP
uk political instability

it seems that there has been just too much good date for the uk recently.

1 or more of the above need to become of a negative surpirse for a decent downtrend.

Ashraf would i be correct?
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 18, 2009 11:10
In Thread: Oil to Underperform Metals
I agree but just read today on bloomberg that that pound is now very bullish according to GS as they see speculative pounds being bought to bolster foreign investment into UK real estate funds. Furthermore it seems there are far few short position on sterling since a couple of months ago. Are you suggesting a rapid turnaround in sentiment?
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 18, 2009 10:19
In Thread: Oil to Underperform Metals
Ashraf,

How comes you were so bearish on the Pound when you issued the pole so recently.

Cable seems to be maintaining strength.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
May 16, 2009 17:12
In Thread: Oil to Underperform Metals
Ashraf,

I read something about ONS figures overstating UK high st sales over the last couple of years. This is clearly a negative for sterling.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
May 15, 2009 18:52
In Thread: Oil to Underperform Metals
ashraf i liked the bloomberg video today,

the dollar has not benefited too greatly lately against sterling as you predected.

do u agree with some currency strategists that cable could fall below 1.35 if we fall in to a deep bear market with new lows assumung no signs of worsening economic data. Not sure if that could be a possible set of assumptions.....
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 13, 2009 20:38
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
yes thats the message i got with the low rates likely to be present longer than expected.

i think the news sent mild shockwaves around the world as it goes against the bullish news recently cascaded that has supported this bull market.

cable did fall today probably due to BoE and equity liquidation.

today was pretty vital in setting the short term market trends.

the rally has certainly paused and correction is on its way down.

the markets have priced equities at optimistic levels with PEs historically high for such earnings.

pound should weaken into summer although i think 1.44 is my min target over the next 30 days. however, we cannot forecast as only news and therefore flows will move cable.

key things to look out for is:
rate of increase in unemployment
uk bank related issues
mortgage lending
mainly stock market performance as financial markets in uk represent the bulk of demand for the pound i believe
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