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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 13:04
gamma....

still holding your chf longs?
Gammahunter
Douglas, Isle of Man
Posts: 82
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 12:56
a/y @ 79.5 mr ganja hehe
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 11:28
cygnus...

cat's fans(assuming they're not cat in disguise) will be annoyed.... :)
cygnus
New York , United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 11:19
Fundamentals (while important for the big picture) can end up being a lagging indicator as presented by commentators. There will usually be both good news and bad news for a particular currency or currency pair and unskilled analysts (like catnip) usually just emphasize the news that either fits their own bias or that conveniently explains past price action.

Over 80% of forex trading is speculative in nature.
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 10:52
ybnewz....

as i'm more of a technical trader... my general focus remains on the charts... doesn't mean i totally neglect the fundamentals... on the fundamental side... the arguement will always remain coz it will not always be one-sided.... generally... it largely depends on how the market would perceive a certain outcome and how to act accordingly.... a half filled glass would always draw two different perception... "half-full or half-empty"... and another thing is where the market would want to focus on a given time....

fundamentals would almost always create arguement for both sides with a lot of assumptions.. while technicals would likely be a more straightforward approach for trading...

hope to hear more from you.... good luck with your shorts...
yobadnewz
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 9:55
hey subway, thanks for reply. I only play a very long game - I'm not a day-trader - so have had my euro short open for quite a few months now, so I am on the losing side.
I agree the general trend for euro looks upwards, taking into account the weekly close. But we now know that as soon as the eurozone crisis resurfaces, all those gains reverse very quickly. So the next time it hits, I will be doubling my short.
But the question for me is: is the above analysis now redundant, given all the efforts that have been put in to preventing another eurozone crisis? Undoubtedly the EU's response has been impressive, not least because all the EU leaders will do anything to save their euro-centred careers, so they now know how to respond, but even taking this into consideration the euro is historically well above its average versus the USD.
And then there is the US dollar, which the FED seems to want to inflate out of existence to cut down US debts. I think there is something of a fiscal conservative revival underway in the US, which will intensify this year in preparation for US elections. That could pave the way for the end of the dollar-dumping of the Greenspan and Bernanke eras.
So when I look at the political economic situation, and the historically high value of the euro, I still fall on the short euro side; and the fact that the eurozone could blow up again gives me extra support on this.
As a final, technical point, I note that even though the euro has risen since January, it has not shown the same upward momentum that usually accompanies its rallies - the retracements are a significant sign that institutional investors are wary of piling into the currency, which I believe caps it off for now at 1.40.
Place yer bets...
lucky
ibadan, Nigeria
Posts: 377
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 9:21
oil will go back to 85
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 8:51
ybnewz....

you could be right.. but maybe a bit too early for that call....

weekly may have closed negative but the trend is intact... still managed to make higher highs and higher lows.... maybe a weekly close below 3600 level could add some confidence to your view...
i guess you have short posi.... would you have stops for your shorts?

anyway.. gl/gt
yobadnewz
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 8:04
I called 1.40 as the euro top a week back and I'm sticking with it. I have to disagree with Ashraf's analysis below, as we are seeing a return to USD safe haven buying - note the sell off in equities and commodities, the latter did not happen with the middle east concerns.
Many commentators are saying Japan will recover, and ten years ago that would be true, but this is a very old (as in demographics) country, and unless it introduces massive reforms, not least on immigration, then it is guaranteed another rough decade.
Back in Euroland, with the return of the warmer weather expect to see a rerun of last year's riots in Greece, with a surge again in Portugese bonds.
In other words, if you are short euro dollar patience will be rewarded!:-
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 7:14
IGGY....

surprised to see you put your stops so tight.... :)

crisis or no crisis.... euro behaving exactly as it should so far... only daily close below 3850 level would risk possibility of dip to 3690/3700 level...

for a/y... looks like it's headed lower.... any bounce would see resistance around 81.90/82... for move to 79.50 at least.... clear break back above 82 would see bigger rebound to 83 area b4 selloff..... a clear break of 79.50 level could see downside open up for test of 74/75 main support....

gl/gt