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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:
Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
I'd think that if the ECB rate hike goes through, it may cause a selloff in equities & commodities. Whether it continues to be a positive for the Euro (considering 75bps are priced in for the year) I dont know, but it seems that the commodity currencies might have more to loose on an ECB rate hike, if some speculative money gets out of commodities.
I have started to trade the AUDUSD, and the CADUSD. My question is regarding the Australian market. While I get great news and video from bnn.ca, I have not been able to locate a similar business news website for Australia that would allow me to good news stories from that region. Anyone have any suggestions?
from the May 2010 low price mapped 5 waves up to the Nov 2010 high at 7974. What do we expect then ? We expect a correction of the entire 5 series up. From that high price has mapped a 3 wave move down which I label ABC (simple corrective) until proven otherwise. The move made symmetry with the length of C matching the length of A if we ignore the spike ending. This also coincided with the 61.8% ret fib level. Symmetry is an alert that the corrective move down is probably ended so what do we expect then ? We expect a move back up to make new highs above the 7974 2010 high.
So far it has moved up in a straight line which is not ideal for analysis. Expect some kinda correction any time soon. We need structure to be able to make projections. Straight lines are not really playing the game to give us a fair crack at the whip.
OK, now drop down from the daily chart to say 120 min and see what pattern you can see. Can you see 5 waves up on that timeframe. Remember you want to see 5 smaller waves within each of the 3 impulse up waves. Adjust your timeframe to get the clearest pattern to make a judgement. Decide at what point you might like to take a short position. You need some degree of confirmnation first that the immediate up trend is being corrected. Take your fibs for the entire move up etc etc.