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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
I been trading 16 yrs. Ashraf is very experienced currency fundie analyst, probably in the very top echelons, possibly #1 in the top league of analysts but if I simply tried to follow everything that Ash advocated I know I would lose money.
I been where you are at now. I almost tore myself apart with frustration listening to a variety of tech and fundamental analysts. Listening to other traders in real time trading rooms. I had a half dozen methods of tech analysis spinning around in circles and as many again self-appointed expert analysts all sending me reports.
There came a point when I flipped and what I did was an over reaction. I unsubscribed from all reports & cut all communications with other traders. I even banned newspapers and TV news in our household. I didn't want to hear anyone elses "opinion". I spent the next 12 months identifying a trading system to suit me personally and putting it into practice with no outside influences bombarding me every minute of every trading day. I watched price action and consolidated my newborn system for dealing with it.
If you can develop a system and TP to specifically suit you then you are no longer reliant upon others and their opinions. It takes years to refine any personal system but you have to make a start somewhere and no one else can do this for you. You need to write down all your TP rules so that your rules become a personal commitment to yourself. The plan will be subject to change and will keep evolving so you need to keep good records of every trade you make so you can sit back at every month-end to review your trades. Identify what worked well and what didnt work so well. If something bad keeps repeating then you can make the necessary change.
The fundamentals make trading interesting but if I had to choose between tech trading and fundmtl trading the former wins hands down. I don't believe a trader can benefit from fundamental analysis in the absence of a highly refined tech system to execute and manage the trades. Techs have to come first for good sound protection if nothing else. You have to treat your trading as a serious business. Beneath all the banter in the forum there is serious discipline required to make consistent profits. gl with your new plan.
I know trendlines can be subjective, but looking at the Eur/Usd on a monthly chart I see a trendline resistance coming through to the current price. Am I seeing this right.
With this trendline in place and the Fib level coming in around approx 4440, a Sell would be a good choice. I would prefer it to go lower than 4244 area,
@Sir you thinkin it can then push higher- How high
I trade euro/usd and usd/chf on 1 and 4 hr chartz..
I take positions in usd/mxn.. and aud/jpy
The above I know price movement..
other $ crosses, gold, oil, etc..I don't trade or watch movement diligently....
not my niche....I listen to a few traders comments tho on those.....
I evaluate nfp, hikes and crisis vs r/r for trades...
Ashraf has all that down....
simplify
certainly don't stop posting..my only intention is for YOU not to be overly concerned with fundies and develop a consistent trading tech plan for short term profits...
no need to stop posting news blah...but at this point must decide if you are going to be a poster or a trader...narrow your focus in my opinion...
as for my look ahead on euro...it is subject to change when convinced by price movement...
but for now as I stated...
see asian open
low liquidity. Thus USDx dropped hard. I think this is serious. The idea some posed that US could default on UST if budget is not approved and debt ceiling not lifted may be not too far fetched. But why would then someone buy Euro? The EFSF/EMF is the same stuff it isn't funded at all. Basically all bailouts were the same as QE under another name, just a kind of security promise, but no capital behind. Only hot air.