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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
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DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 20, 2011 12:56
With so many nations being net borrowers there has to be a limit on the supply side. Who is going to provide the required funding to bail out so many nations. I doubt china/india etc will carry the entire load and if there is a global recession or depression ahead those countries too will suffer.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 20, 2011 12:49
yes Cat but their very low debt servicing costs are dependant upon the ability of their elderly population to continue investing savings. I believe the "old" savers are virtually spent out now so any further investment in further soveriegn borrowing requirements will need to come from external sources. The demographics ratios are truly appalling and the smaller younger population are not savers like their parents.

The time will come soon when the cost of debt servicing will rise. Just 1% increase would kill off the econonomy, let alone 2, 3, 4,5% increases. Its all a time bomb waiting to explode.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
May 20, 2011 11:05
Easy. Japan has very low debt in foreign currencies most of Jap debt is held by Japanese.
Thus for JPY there are no liabilities in foreign currencies. Except China has bought jap bonds recently.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 20, 2011 11:03
Good question Jedrom and I can never understand why JPY is safe haven currency when Japan debt and demographics is a fly waiting to hit a windshield (or a bomg waiting to exlpode). Add to that their recent disaster and just shows how irrational markets can be with impending long run of neg GDP ahead. We just have to trade what the charts tell us and ignore rationality methinks :-)

Perhaps Ashraf will enlighten us !
Jedrom
Eskilstuna, Sweden
Posts: 3
13 years ago
May 20, 2011 7:46
Can anybody explain why the Japanese Yen is so strong despite the fact that the Japanese economy is very weak and the county is officially in recession?
I know also that USDJPN was up to 115 for few years ago. What caused this level?
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
May 19, 2011 15:45
yen quickly back to test that breakout level.. longs reloding or throwing in the towel?..
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
May 19, 2011 14:30
82.20 top 4h channel hit.. so if breakout retest fails at 81.80 then will look to 81.30..
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
May 19, 2011 14:00
waiting for re-test of break up level 81.90-82 to re-enter longs..
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
May 19, 2011 13:39
sorry 82 not 81 and it is under pressure now.. let see if it gives for extension higher..
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
May 19, 2011 13:29
taking profit on my USDJPY longs after they are failing near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement region of the recent peak and trough.. might re-enter at lower levels or if 81 gives.. waiting flat for jobless claims..
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