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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
partisan
London, UK
Posts: 43
12 years ago
Dec 2, 2011 18:41
Ashraf -
It seems your Nov 29th post is so far looking good - Euro to fall on QE. Assuming that implies stronger USD does that also imply falling gold? Or would gold benefit from QE?
manybthanks, John
adamcpf
Lisbon, Qatar
Posts: 58
12 years ago
Dec 1, 2011 19:25
Ok short @ 99.97...SL at 100.40, not 100.10.
adamcpf
Lisbon, Qatar
Posts: 58
12 years ago
Dec 1, 2011 18:54
Good evening all,

Looking to short oil between 99.60 and 100, a classic retest of broken support. Preliminary target of 98.40 which is my 121 fib extn. SL above 100.10. Let's see.

Happy trading

jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
12 years ago
Nov 29, 2011 22:06
Oliver.. important was this paragraph and the link in it.. but maybe you missed it..

"..Because of this, Libya is a major component of the Brent price equation. So when it went offline, Brent prices increased relative to other benchmarks. In fact, Libya has been part of the reason Brent has been trading at such a large premium over WTI. For a more comprehensive analysis, please read my previous column on the Brent/WTI spread.." http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/the-commodity-investor/3162-the-commodity-investor-brent-a-wti-tale-of-two-oils-a-two-prices.html
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
Nov 29, 2011 15:50
maybe a down day for stock, ndaq raise slow than spx
Olivier
London, UK
Posts: 63
12 years ago
Nov 29, 2011 12:04
Thanks for that Jacek;
It's a good link as to why Brent went up early on in the year but it says nothing about the spread; on 14th October, the spread was still $27+ and it went as low as $8 last week: that's a $19 (1900 pips) move in little over 6 weeks.
I saw something in ZH on the 16th November about some re-routing of Crude (Wtic) in the US that increased the move on the day quite dramatically but by then it was already down to $13
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/crude-passes-100).

If someone has any idea or link or historical research to explain the compression, please post it in here.

Thanks in advance
Olivier
London, UK
Posts: 63
12 years ago
Nov 28, 2011 22:30
DaveO, have you (or anyone else) done any corelation work on the spread between Crude & Brent; it was just above $27 not 2 months ago and fell to below $10 on Friday (that's a huge compression). Back above $11.50 today
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Nov 28, 2011 21:47
CL was out of correlation today and made a gravestone doji on the daily t/f. Candle analysis is not what it used to be so I am still in limbo and have to see if the somewhat dubious risk on rally today was pure b/s.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Nov 28, 2011 21:40
my gold perspective unchanged. Favour higher prices to 1730 next. Daily chart capped price at the confluence of 100 and 55 DMA's so need to clear that resistance.