Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 24, 2008 3:56
Comments: 677
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Daily EURO chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2010 6:54
Bam - in the time it took me post last message, another 12 pips was thrus on top of the Gbp to print frsh highs at 1.6221, and the eur DROPPED 4 pips in the same time.

How? Easy. Just take off a few more pips from the eur/gbp.

Gonna be like this all European session. Eur up 50 pips and Gbp up 70 pips from Asian lows.

And Gold? Doing nothing at 1129. Corellations are breaking down.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2010 6:48
You can calculate Eur/Gdp by dividing Eur/Usd by Gdp/Usd.

Obviously the cross Eur/Gdp pits Eur vs Gdp directly, without the "noise" of Usd involved.

If you check the chart fr the past three hours, you will see the sharp drop in eur/gbp was the tool to spike gdp/usd over 1.6200 big figure - allowing longs of that pair to run stops.
Pipster
birmingham, UK
Posts: 111
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2010 6:37
Pipped Off,

Thankyou - for sharing.......You are well versed with the pairs. I am a newbie and from what i'm reading in your posts is there a correlation with the Eur/Gbp, Eur/Usd & Gbp/Usd.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2010 6:31
Higher-significantly higher.

Imagine where Eur/usd would be had the 70 pips not been lapped off eur/gbp in front of the UK economic data set to be released in 2-1/2 hours. (A move which began"smartly"yesterday).

Could see 1.46 prints on eur/usd after all gbp/usd buy-stops are taken out. At that point, the eur/gdp will be bid aggressively to do the same to the eur/usd shorts.

All my stops have been hit. I have re-entered them 65 pips higher on eur, and 100 pips on gdp. I expect them to be filled in European session.

Other targets: usd/chf 1.0120

Th magnitude of the move we have seen today in pre-Eurpean trade on the gbp/usd are very rare.
Pipster
birmingham, UK
Posts: 111
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2010 6:20
AShraf,

Where do you see Eur/Usd heading today.

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2010 1:54
Jack, eurgbp in 6 months?? oh boy thats far.. well AFTER the elections. id only see a decline in EURGBP belo 0.85 if market cheers a Tory victory. will keep an eye on yield spreads Bunds vs Gilts

Ashraf
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 22:16
Ashraf,

Now that we've (inevitably) broken through 80...again, w/ indecent volumes...what's the next major support level?

I expect oil to play tennis around 80 for a day or two, but it seems to be trading lower in the coming days. A good time to open a short? Hmm...


Asad


P.S. Keep one eye on VIX!
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 20:38
@Asad: You may be interested in a book called "Technical Analysis and the Active Trader" by Gary Norden. In it, he is _very_sceptical about Technical Analysis.

I am not sure if I go along with all he says, and he doesn't really say exactly what one can put in his place, but anyway, it makes you stop and think.

In a previous posting, I asked the question about finding the right balance between fundamental and technical analysis.

Still looking ...

:-)
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 19:41
Agreed. Agreed. What I'm personally waiting for, amidst all this, is the failure of fundamental and technical analysis! Remember how every analysis (& analyst) went out of the window starting Sep '08. Like you, I can't tell how much (even if the signs of 'when' are starting to appear). The major themes (as e/one knows) would be...

- Fed QE exit
- Dubai foreclosures
- Greece (!)
- ...another surprise round the corner

Again, I reinforce the importance of fundamental analysis in falling markets. tech is only as good as when the markets are up...


Asad
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 18:58
Asad considering mkts have been rising for the last 9 months or so, a correction is inevitable, there is only so long that the US can keep rigging these mkts even with the help of all their Hi-frequency robots, which tend to go crazy near mkt close. The million dollar question ( literally ) is when and how large. In my view the longer it takes for the mkt to correction to happen the worse it will be...The missed Alcoa earnings could start the ball rolling
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