Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 24, 2008 3:56
Comments: 677
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Daily EURO chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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rkkashmir
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:25
Hate to say this, but I agree with nzvik over Ashraf. This is just not the right time to go long usd.

I think the usd index remains above the 50 and 100 dma Ashraf keeps mentionng because euro is over half the index, and it is the ONLY pair which hasn't simply stomped all over usd (YET)!
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:09
Mont - appears to be working now, however I am getting uncomfortable with my EUR long - market is broadly stuck between 1.4460 and 530 if it does not blast past 1.4600 before the ECB rate decision tonight - we could have a mini reversal. but still not the environment to short unless you want scalp around
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:08
yes iam sure we will see usd at new lows over most pairs an gold crude back up hugely..dow futures up 85pts..gl guys..prob be greece raising rates lol
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:04
Well, my AUD is +ve again. My EUR/USD is (slightly) under water....glug glug...
...see you tomorrow morning (maybe) .....glug.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:02
@Chloe: I'd find it hard to believe the BoE would do that now. Apart from anything else, on top of all this snow....seriously! It would NOT be good news.

ECB, maybe ....?

Who else is a candidate...?
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:01
Ashraf

With the strong jobs out of australia - do you think the RBA could raise rates by 50 basis points on Feb 2

thanks
vik
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 1:59
Nzvik: It's hard to argue with you mate ....

Still, we make our own beds...
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 1:57
i think boe os some1 will prob raise interest rates befor the week is done..gl
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 1:56
pippedoff - that was my post of bearish USD which Ashraf disagreed with - and here is original clarification give for it :

""Ashraf

bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.

earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so.
the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.

Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 1:52
@Chloe: Take it from a Brit: our people are masters of doublespeak. Don't believe a word of it....
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