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More Euro Losses Ahead
More losses in the euro are seen ahead despite rallying oil prices.
Hi Mackinnovation ,
My mistake...i read rapidly what you wrote and remain in my mind you already closed position at 1.42...:)
I think is possible a up move to 1.436 and then goes down to 1.42-1.423
Good luck
Well today's dollar rally seems to be faltering, and cable's plummet has been arrested for the moment.
Whether it will regain the dizzy heights of ɭ.64 in the near future remains to be seen.
Long Euro ...
On a technical basis, Ashraf and all are correct
on a macro basis, Euro will recover
oveall, the matrix seems to be
1) US slow down + Euro slow down ==> Dollar appreciates due to risk apetite
2) US growth + Euro slow down ==> Dollar appreciates due to yield differential and rising rates
3) US growth + Euro growth ==> Euro appreciates due to risk appetite increase
4) US slow down + Euro growth ==> Euro rises due to rising rate expectations
The current fall of the Euro is due to 2).
However, the transition to 3) this year and then 4) next year will happen
Note that despite heavily Euro shorting since Dec 4, the Euro is holding above 1.42. Whats holding it? depsite every one clamouring for a Euro correction?
The fundametals for Euro rise are in place, and the Euro fall for the last few weeks is just pressure by technicals... lets see if Ashraf's 1.38 comes by end of Q1 or a if Euro moves above 1.45 - my guess
br,
jamshed