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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
speculator
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:51
euro is on a clear downwards path . Even if bailout completes positive US data will keep euro under pressure. 1.25 within 2 months is reasonable.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:49
I'll stay with my charted course but feel free to go long at the close.
rrose
United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:47
this could all be true but no one will know any more info sunday night then they know now about this and the trend for close is up . you might want to rethink your plan
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:41
Note that these are only my rationale and I realize I could very well be wrong.

1) Any bailout package has to be led by the IMF, but must include EU participation as well. This creates a very difficult proposition, in my opinion. The IMF will come in senior to the EU, which will be a tough sell, assuming the EU can even participate legally in any form of bailout, IMF led or not.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7591027/Greek-aid-in-doubt-as-German-professors-prepare-court-challenge.html

The EU part of the bailout is not yet ready, assuming it will ever be ready.

2) The U.S. has veto power at the IMF and will likely not allow a bailout until the EU portion is committed. See #1 above. The U.S. will see the responsibility of assisting Greece as being the EU's.

3) Even if #1 and #2 occur, the IMF will likely impose harsher austerity measures on Greece than the ones currently in place. See Latvia (2009). Greece will resist even more than they already are now.

4) The May 19 deadlines does not address CURRENT nor does it address future bills. It is to repay money already spent. The realization of this will set in even deeper the closer we approach and the more difficult bailout coordination becomes.

Enough of these monkey shines.
rrose
United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:31
macrosam do you have a reason or is it a guess a feeling i would love to know
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:28
Yes, I am taking advantage of today's run up as a cushion that will be eaten into once disappointing news over the weekend is released.

I could very well be wrong. I have been wrong many, many times before and this won't be the first. The market is the harshest critic of them all.

macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:26
GGB yields
1y 6.52
2y 10.22 !!!
3y 9.87
4y 9.79
5y 9.46
6y 9.27
7y 9.10
8y 8.85
9y 8.90
10y 8.66
15y 7.83
20y 0.00
said
France
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:25
Global tactical asset allocation or GTAA or shecat in arabic slang
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:24
The beautiful thing about the markets is that you guys don't have to argue with me! Just take the other side of the trade.
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
14 years ago
Apr 23, 2010 20:19
Anybody who has ever been to greece will know the most often used word is "AVRIO",which means tomorrow though more often means some unknown time in the future,which is pretty much how the whole greek debt crisis has been panning out.Everything will be worked out avrio!!!!