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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
1) Any bailout package has to be led by the IMF, but must include EU participation as well. This creates a very difficult proposition, in my opinion. The IMF will come in senior to the EU, which will be a tough sell, assuming the EU can even participate legally in any form of bailout, IMF led or not.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7591027/Greek-aid-in-doubt-as-German-professors-prepare-court-challenge.html
The EU part of the bailout is not yet ready, assuming it will ever be ready.
2) The U.S. has veto power at the IMF and will likely not allow a bailout until the EU portion is committed. See #1 above. The U.S. will see the responsibility of assisting Greece as being the EU's.
3) Even if #1 and #2 occur, the IMF will likely impose harsher austerity measures on Greece than the ones currently in place. See Latvia (2009). Greece will resist even more than they already are now.
4) The May 19 deadlines does not address CURRENT nor does it address future bills. It is to repay money already spent. The realization of this will set in even deeper the closer we approach and the more difficult bailout coordination becomes.
Enough of these monkey shines.
I could very well be wrong. I have been wrong many, many times before and this won't be the first. The market is the harshest critic of them all.
1y 6.52
2y 10.22 !!!
3y 9.87
4y 9.79
5y 9.46
6y 9.27
7y 9.10
8y 8.85
9y 8.90
10y 8.66
15y 7.83
20y 0.00