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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Just out of interest, when rats leave a sinking ship, where do they head (say, if the ship is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean)? I mean, can they swim? No, seriously...
Asad
to drop they will sell in droves like rats leaving a sinking ship.
I think there will be a big sell off in gold, it will rise slightly then drop,
late today or tomorrow.
I'm always right, I wish
good luck out there
May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Energy companies borrowing costs are rising at the fastest pace in 17 months after an oil rig leased by BP Plc exploded, killing 11 people, spewing crude into the Gulf of Mexico and prompting a moratorium on new drilling.
The extra yield investors demand to hold energy company bonds instead of benchmark government securities jumped 32 basis points since April 28, the biggest two-week increase since the period ended Dec. 4, 2008, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynchs U.S. Corporates, Energy index. The notes are the worst performing industrial debt this month except for basic industries, losing 0.96 percent, the data show.
Borrowing costs are rising as estimates of the cleanup reach $12.5 billion, with BP, Europes largest oil and gas company, on the hook for $8 billion, according to analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein. The London-based companys bonds are suffering along with the debt of other firms involved including Transocean Ltd. and Halliburton Co. Moodys Investors Service and Standard & Poors say they may cut their ratings on BP debt.
This whole thing is a monster thats going to take years to resolve, said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, Florida. As we saw with the financial crisis, at the start estimates are small and they rise as more information is obtained.
It is rather so that European banks are parking artificially cheap Eur ( because of the ECB's buying of
hig yield sovereigns at articifially low yields ) in gold ETF and will withdraw once trust in EUR recovers.
That makes a huge windfall profit if they concurrently short gold. And looking at COT data indeed gold shorts are again raising. I don't know how trust in EUR could be restored but I know that some know how to.
no i don't work for a bank but when i was with IBM as an information infrastructure architect I learned
pretty much about how banks work in equity and option trading .... so I am convinced markets are not irrational but the trader's model of the market is irrational. This does not mean markets are manipulated it means markets are computable ahead of the curve. For ex. one of my closest friends,
a Russian top mathematician who escaped from Yeltzin mafia to the US and became US citizen told me
after being a year with Goldman ( he retired after one year aged 69) Goldman employs the world's best paid mathematicians. And quite many of them. What could be more rational then mathematics?