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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 16, 2010 11:38
Flow rate of oil spill appears to be underestimated by factor 10: its more like min 30.000 barrels a day up to 60.000 50.000 is a good approximation.
It is unlikely BP can ever pay for the damage as it looses revenue in gas and oil from the leak, too.
Obama may press for extra tax on oil companies ( environmental tax or such) and has good prospects to get a penny tax decided - at first.
Long term I don't see whether this tax is to skyrocket crude future or is a death knell for oil .
Most optimists inclusive of US govt seem not to be aware what hurricanes could add to environmental
damages by oil spill.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 15, 2010 11:37
(Reuters) - A big mystery seller of futures contracts during the market meltdown last week was not a hedge fund or a high-frequency trader as many have suspected, but money manager Waddell & Reed Financial Inc, according to a document obtained by Reuters.

Waddell on May 6 sold a large order of e-mini contracts during a 20-minute span in which U.S. equities markets plunged, briefly wiping out nearly $1 trillion in market capital, the internal document from Chicago Mercantile Exchange parent CME Group Inc said.

The e-minis are one of the most liquid futures contracts in the world, providing holders exposure to the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index. The contracts can act as a directional indicator for the underlying stock index.
Regulators and exchange officials quickly focused on Waddell's sale of 75,000 e-mini contracts, which the document said "superficially appeared to be anomalous activity."

More than a week after the incident, it was still not clear what impact the unusual trading in the futures contracts had on the broader meltdown in the stock market.

Waddell manages the $22.1 billion Ivy Asset Strategy fund, which is well-known for hedging with equity index futures when manager Mike Avery, who is also chief investment officer at the company, feels uneasy about the market.

The Asset Strategy fund has dropped 2.76 percent this quarter, compared with a 0.80 percent decline in the S&P 500, data from Lipper Inc, a unit of Thomson Reuters Corp show.

Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said in congressional testimony on Tuesday that it had found one sale that was responsible for about 9 percent of the volume in e-minis during the sell-off in the U.S. markets.
Gensler said there was no suggestion that the trader, whom he did not identify, did anything wrong in only entering orders to sell. Gensler said data showed that the trades appeared to be part of a bona fide hedging strategy.

WADDELL SAYS WAS HURT TOO

It is unclear what impact the trading in the e-minis had on stock prices during the plunge, but regulators have scrutinized futures trading because the sharp decline in that market preceded the dive in the broader U.S. equities market.

The document said that during the sell-off and subsequent rally, other active traders in e-minis included Jump Trading, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Interactive Brokers Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citadel Group.

During the 20-minute period, 842,514 contracts in e-minis were traded. The CME document did not provide a break-out of Waddell's trading during that crucial time, but said from 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) to 3 p.m. it traded 75,000 contracts.
Overland Park, Kansas-based Waddell declined to return calls seeking comment. But in a statement, the company said: "Like many market participants, Waddell & Reed was affected negatively by the market activity of May 6."

Waddell said in its statement that it often uses futures trading to "protect fund investors from downside risk," and on May 6 it executed several trading strategies including the use of index futures contracts as part of normal operations.

The notional value of the contracts sold by Waddell was $4.2 billion, according to document. How much Waddell paid for the contracts was not stated, but typically the cost would be far less than their notional value.
The company, which advises and distributes the Ivy Funds, has made a name with good results from its family of mutual funds.

Waddell's shares fell after the Reuters report, and closed down 5.3 percent at $32.25. Volume was 1.28 million shares, more than triple the daily average this year.

Analyst Jason Weyeneth of New York brokerage Sterne Agee said he had not learned anything on Friday to lead him to change his "neutral" rating on Waddell stock.

The CFTC declined to comment.

A CME spokesman, who declined to comment on the document, said the Chicago-based futures
exchange operator never discusses customer activity.

"We found no evidence of improper trading activity or erroneous trades by CME Globex customers," said CME spokesman Allan Schoenberg.

Trading in e-minis takes place entirely on the CME's Globex exchange. Hedge funds and high-speed trading firms often use the e-mini in an arbitrage strategy that seeks to capture the change in prices between the futures contract and the S&P 500.

Waddell's contracts were executed at Barclays Plc'sBarclays Capital and later given up to Morgan Stanley, according to the document.

CME said it spoke to representatives from both banks on May 6 and planned to speak to Waddell representatives the following day. The firm oversaw $74.2 billion in assets as of March 31.

Morgan Stanley told CME that it did not have concerns regarding Waddell's activity because it "would typically use equity index futures to hedge macro market risk
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 15, 2010 10:31
Imo the gold story is a media hype. Fact is US bought some hundred tons of physical gold in 2009 but they are not buying now. Only Europe buys Asia doesn't. Money does not go into gold ( the amount of gold that can be sold to private investors IS ALWAYS very limited ) it goes into ETF.
You see I bought some 1kg gold bullions back in 2005 ... and some loonies gold...I had to wait 2 months for delivery. No one talked about gold then. So we have absolutely normal conditions now it takes time for gold to deliver that hasn't changed but the media blow it up. Its all a super bull trap.
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 15, 2010 2:36
@lucky ,,not around too much i have my positions,lotsssss of powder on the side,now im waiting for them to play out..made pretty good $ this week an mth so far now i just need gold an oil to pay me..hope every1 eles is getting paid..gl next week pl
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 15, 2010 1:19
There is s/thing EXTREMELY suspicious about the CL contango. Either the Jun contract has to increase...or July has to decrease...by the end of this month. & I reckon the latter will happen. & by the looks of it...the latter will happen. So why not go short July?

Also, it seems that money is flowing from oil into gold - they've moved inversely for most of the week. Are we seeing in gold what we saw in CL in 2008? Have the investors dumped CL and moved onto gold? All this talk of 70 being support is crap, I think. They're the one who form consensus on support...and they're the ones who smash through it.

Lucky...you've been pointing for days that they're buying slowly - well...they've been buying and then shorting it. CL has been going down for days now. I agree that oil will eventually go up...but there is s/thing VERY fishy going on around this time...


Asad

P.S. I'm buying CL at every dip the market takes (w/ SLs, ofcoutse).

P.P.S. When was the last time Ashraf visited this side of the Forum?
lucky
ibadan, Nigeria
Posts: 377
14 years ago
May 15, 2010 0:02
if believe germany will save euro from the profit they made on gold only
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
May 14, 2010 22:07
@Lucky I only pay CL thru options, find the futures too be too volatile and manipulated by the large players on the street and the specialist prop shops. I liked your point on the Gold Oil ratio...something has to give there...lets hope it's Gold so my OTM puts can pay off
lucky
ibadan, Nigeria
Posts: 377
14 years ago
May 14, 2010 21:00
buy now dont miss any opportunity
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
May 14, 2010 20:47
@lUCKY busy watching the best T20 cricket match ever....Im looking to buy CL on any break of 71
lucky
ibadan, Nigeria
Posts: 377
14 years ago
May 14, 2010 19:43
where are guys no one is commenting i hope all you busy calculating your profits for the week