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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
I think Roubini's systemic thinking is way over the head of chartists e wavers and that like.
Agreed the idea of positive and negative feedback is the lowest entry to a systems theory
of the markets. The big advantage of system theory, the markets as a system, is that a system has an input signal and responds to it with an output signal in a ( under certain conditions) computable manner.
The difference to chart astrology which also predict the next price as the response to the previous is that it cannot work. Because EUR and USD are not independent variables, neither EUR nor USD have a value by itself. Rather the value of EUR and USD, resp. must be computed from all pairs of which EUR and USD resp. is a member. And then you are right in systems theory.
dont u think that we lose thecapacity to think oout of the box even some economist.
at exactly 8:00 next morning that is always the min for the day and the difference is 4 USD/ounce . That worked well with XAUAUD and I gonna try it today with XAUUSD, start the test with 100 ounces.
what do you think of catnip ideas ,do you think his 2011 guess is happining??
When I hear all the pundits talking up commodities - especially gold - I figure we must be close to a top!
Thank you for the comment Ashraf - I did watch your BNN interview - that is why I asked the question - I thought you must have changed your view of the eurusd, but I just wanted to verify.
What the CBs attempt to create by fighting deflation is a positive feedback that means inflation,
an negative means deflation. Deflation cannot be avoided so we'll see commodities falling hard
gold falls , stock markets tank, the deflationary USD ( FED reduced outlook) will remain stable while the inflationary EUR will plunge. The downward will extend into a spiral as the debt problems of PIIGS will under this conditions explode so within soon we'll see a return below
parity and eventually EUR will disappear my guess already in 2011.
Ashraf