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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:
GBP
Discuss GBP
3months 1 hour
th e50 MA 1.5529 will paly support for GBPCHF
any clear break below will signal more downside.
"but 1.6 remains a key resistance as it presents the confluence between the 55-WEEK MA and the trendline from the June high "
On my weekly chart the confluence comes in at 1.6340 as of today ??? How can we be so far apart ? or are you projecting into a few weeks ahead ?
In way of my first forex post on this forum, I would like to ask you of you opinion on GBPUSD. Do you still eye 1.53 in near term or has todays gdp put some doubt on it on actually reaching 1.53 or on timing of it happening? Personally i think the Q3 GDP has little relevance as all the action (referring to spending review) has occured since q3 and future at the moment looks bleak for or atleast very uncertain (which usually means bearish for ). So there is big disconnect between Q3 and Q4 onwards. Also noteworthy q3 gdp boosted mainly by construction and govt spending which surely is not sustainable simply based on the spending cuts let alone impact on consumption etc.
STERLING BOOSTED BY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED Q3 GDP, which rose 0.8% q/q and 2.8% y/y, twice more than expectations. The figures were propped by the highest construction spending since Q1 1988, raising questions over the sustainability of this sector. While the WEEKLY cable chart continues to show negative oscillators, the daily chart allows for shorter-term gains towards $1.5880s. Im sticking with my bearish GBPUSD call, targeting $1.5770 & $1.5720 for later this week. The 55-day MA stands at $1.5650, which is the base of the last 5 days. SEK DROPPED across the board after the RIKSBANK issued a DOVISH RATE HIKE, raising the repo rate by 25-bps to 1.0%. 2 members argued against the rate hike, while the overall committee stated that weak developments overseas and low inflationary pressures mean slower pace of tightening ahead. The bank lowered its 2011 and 2010 repo rate outlook to 2.0% from 2.4%, and to 2.9% from 3.3% respectively. EURSEK regained 9.2, now facing the previous trend line support at 9.27. WATCH OUT FROM THE GRAVESTONE DOJI IN THE DAILY S&P500, which could portend a lower rest of the week, thereby likely lending near-term stability to the USD. Watch US consumer confidence today for a possible catalyst to these developments.
Ashraf