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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 29, 2011 14:34
Yoni,

The geopolitical events have changed e/thing - at least for the time being.

I wrote earlier that CL would drop to 85 (happened) and then try to touch 90 (happened). It's currently at 89, but NOT for the reasons I forecast. Egypt's, and the upcoming, events have changed the game. If they're worried about Suez, spare a thought for the Strait of Hormuz should protests start in Iran! (Two-thirds of the world's oil supply, directly or indirectly, passes through the SoH).

Having written this, it's still hype and reaction. Myself, I'm out for the time being. Let it go to 90+ and then maybe I'll go short.

My staying out of the market is validated by another keen CL trader, Gunjack, who TOO chose to stay on the sidelines. Remember, the market will ALWAYS be there for you - it's up to you whether you take a profit or loss... ;)


Asad
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
13 years ago
Jan 29, 2011 14:33
IMPORTANT

Hello ashraf,
i would like to know if at CMC you can provide fx options for the external money managers?

DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 29, 2011 13:45
said, I agree the end of the bull stock market was in 2000. The move up from 2002 lows which peaked in 2007 we can label a Wave B (or perish the thought a wave 2). Do you believe in the Prechter super cycle count ? I don't like to be that pessimistic ! I rely on the scientists presenting us with some very nice surprises in the next 20 years. We just have to hope that governments do not continue to screw up everything they touch :-)
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 22:19
yoni daveo
leys agree on something also
the stock market correction began in 2000/2001 if do u remenber the time when we first met?

during the east indies the court hired privateer and bucaneers to chase others and/or protect the merchant fleet.
well economhistery shows us that the last decade hhas been the return of privateers.

sleep tight all and see you monday
i like y all.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 21:07
sorry to misinterpret. UK book cooking, I think we are on the right path with a lotta pain to come though before any daylight. We have done our share of cooking books in the past but I sure hope that habit is now in the past forever.
Yoni
Turku, Finland
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 21:02
DaveO, agree on this. My point was that Iraq case has no place in the list. Anyway.

As a side note, you are lucky! The UK government is not cooking the books:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/01/big_mac_index?fsrc=scn%2Ffb%2Fwl%2Fdc%2Fovercooked_undercooked&ref=nf
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 20:56
Also in 2003 the fed became very skilled at directly manipulating the stock market via secret trading teams sponsored by them. The rise up to 2007 high was in fact a bear rally if you take account of US dollar depreciation during that period. Also the techs did not make a new high in 2007, not by a long way. All other, well most other world indices siimply follow wall st. The so called bull market up to 2007 was an illusion.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 20:48
Yoni, I think Iraq war was different scenario. US arms manufacturers et al would benefit. US GDP would benefit, US employment would benefit. US Greenspan would punish M.3. to pay for everything.
Yoni
Turku, Finland
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 20:43
@Ashraf
Agree that Greece induced market top in May and that Egypt is acting in similar fahion now.
But Iraq? I do not agree. When 2nd Iraqi war started in spring 2003, this marked the bottom for the next 5 years and was the start of a bull market.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2011 20:31
Damn well done Boli :-) I have a feeling you are accomplished trader
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