Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2009.10.12)

by Ashraf Laidi
Oct 12, 2009 18:59

MORE UK DATA/EVENT FLOW We alerted you last night of the CEBR report hours before it unleashed its broad damage on GBP, which lost 150 pips from against USD. Due tomorrow (8:30 am GMT) is the Sep UK CPI, expected 1.3% y/y from 1.6% y/y, (exp +0.4% m/m from +0.2% m/m) with the core CPI seen at 1.7% y/y from 1.8%. Note that most G10 nations have shown slower inflation figures as of late, which highlights that disinflation is the immediate concern, thereby, prolonging expansive monetary policies. With the BoE expected to expand its QE by at least another 25 bln, any figure below at or below 1.5% would be neutral to negative for GBP, while 1.3% or lower would be especially bearish for GBPUSD, especially now that the pair has hit the key support of $1.573838% retracement of the Mar low to the July high,


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