Archived IMT (2011.04.13)

US MARCH RETAIL SALES on tap for 12:30 GMT (08:30 ET) highlight early US economic calendar. As indicated in the earlier IMT, a particularly strong set of numbers is a long-shot. March represents the first month since the price of crude oil rose above the psychologically significant $100/barrel. Last time it did so in February of 2008, headline retail sales saw a significant decline of 0.6% m/m - an 8-month low at the time. Tempered consumer appetite amid surging fuel prices would be justified, considering retail sales have now rose for eight consecutive months - a trend not observed in over a decade. Consumer caution would also justify the previously mentioned IBD/TIPP retail assessment, showing steep declines in both March and April surveys.

BANK OF CANADA POLICY REPORT (14:30 GMT) should offer more clarity for its near-term bias. Traders saw little indication the BOC is on the verge of resuming its policy tightening, with key language on stimulus reduction to be "carefully considered" restated verbatim along with more apparent indication of discomfort directed at the strong CAD.

USDCAD respected the 4-week trendline resistance of 09630s, now pulling back down towards 1-week support at 0.9570, a break (close) below which seen extending towards 0.9540s.

By GG - AshrafLaidi.com Staff