Intraday Market Thoughts

Higher German CPI Likely; Onto US Durable Goods

by Patrik Urban
Jul 27, 2011 13:04

USD is either unchanged or slightly higher against the major currencies since London open. German CPI is still being collected but regions that already announced results see somewhat higher readings. GBP weakens after CBI Industrial Order Expectations drops. US session will bring June Durable Goods orders. See Ashraf's latest shorts in S&P500 and US crude oil in the Premium Intermarket Insights as well as rest of the trades in EURUSD, EURGBP, Gold and Silver.

USD has been consolidating with mild upside bias. EURUSD weakened to 1.4450 and soon is likely to attract dip buyers. Unless we see a breakthrough in the debt ceiling talks, the USD weakness should resume.

German CPI data for July is still being collected with most regions so far reporting 0.4% - 0.5% increase. Some parts have seen higher than expected readings (Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hesse) and the region of Westphalia recorded the highest yearly CPI since 2008 at 2.7%. Higher final print would underpin the Euro.

GBPUSD fell about 40 points when CBI Industrial Order Expectations dropped in July to -10 from previous 1. Prints below zero indicate an expectation of a decreasing orders volume.

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer decreased in July to 2.04 from previous 2.23. According to UBS the fall can be attributed to the strength of the CHF that affects countrys industrial production. There were no lasting effects of this release and CHF continues to trade near historical highs.

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The New York session will start at 8:30 am ET with June Durable Goods Orders that are expected to decrease to 0.4% from 2.1%. Core Orders are also seen lower at 0.5% from previous 0.7%.

The Beige book that is due at 2:00 pm ET provides some of the information that FOMC will consider in their upcoming meeting on August 9th. While the Beige book release often impacts financial markets it is likely that any new developments in the debt ceiling saga will take precedence.

Traders should pay attention at 5:00 pm ET when New Zealand announces interest rates. Analysts see rates unchanged at 2.5%

 
 

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