Intraday Market Thoughts

China Worries Fade, Kuroda Next

by Adam Button
Sep 15, 2014 23:20

There's a particular pattern whenever the Chinese Fear-Dragon starts scorching risk trades. The trade inevitably get started in Asia-Pacific trading with some tidbit of negative and everyone begins to worry about what they don't know about the opaque Chinese economy. It begins to gather pace and early European trading grabs the same theme.  Existing Premium trades include USDCHF, NZDUSD,  EURJPY, NZDJPY, CADJPY and NZDCAD.

As the hours pass, there is almost always nothing new to the story and it begins to fade around the time US traders begin to roll in. That's a group that's notoriously domestically focused and Fed-talk dominated the New York session as China-sensitive trades like AUD and oil rebounded.

It's a familiar narrative and one to keep in mind the next time Chinese fears begin to percolate.

Other drivers in US trading were mixed reports on the economy. The Empire Fed manufacturing index jumped to 27.5 versus 16.0 expected but the employment component fell to 3 from 14. Industrial production also put a dent in the US dollar at -0.1% compared to +0.3% expected.

For the most part, it was an inside-day in the forex market as we all look forward to some of the events in the days ahead.

One of the more notable moves was in USD/CAD as it failed at 1.1100 and skidded down to 1.1035. The magnitude of the correction was similar to other dips and the low print remained above other recent lows in a sign that the uptrend will continue. The major risk to buying USD/CAD is a dovish Fed (or fears thereof).

Looking ahead, Japan returns from holiday and BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks at 0530 GMT with a press conference about 2 hours later. In comments last week he didn't try to jawbone the yen lower but said they are ready “without hesitation” to take more steps but only if they're needed.

He had a meeting with PM Abe last week and may have got marching orders to be more dovish in today's speech in something that could help restart upward USD/JPY momentum.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Industrial Production (AUG) (m/m)
-0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Sep 15 13:15
Industrial Production (y/y)
6.9% 8.8% 9.0% Sep 15
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech
Sep 16 5:30
RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech
Sep 16 0:00

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