Intraday Market Thoughts

How about the Euro Index?

by Adam Button
Dec 10, 2020 14:26

ًYou've all heard of the USD Index. Here is the euro index below. Euro firms above the 1.2100 after raising the PEPP by EUR 500 bn by 9 mths, while revising the inflation outlook to below 2% target through 2023. Boosting the the program of ultra cheap loans is seen as a positive for the currenct, especially after ECB pres Lagarde gave only a standard response to the inevitable currency appreciation question of watching the exchange rate "very carefully".  Hopes for a breakthrough in Boris Johnson's trip to Brussels were dashed after terse statements following the meeting. Sterling is off its lows, recoverying from earlier slump as EU/UK leaders gave until Sunday for deal progress. Indices resume their selloff, led by tech after the US govt's lawsuit on Facebook. Ashraf issued a new trade yesterday (currently 80 pips in the green) and will issue a new trade today  (Thursday) before the US close. 

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How about the Euro Index? - Eur Twi Dec 10 2020 (Chart 1)

A three-hour dinner between Johnson and von der Leyen proved to be fruitless on Wednesday with both sides releasing statements saying they were far apart and that it was unclear whether gaps can be bridged. They promised a decision about whether to continue on Sunday, which sets the FX up for significant weekend risk.

The same problems on fishing, enforcement and level playing field remain with the latter appearing to be the most problematic. For its part, the market remains optimistic. Even after a sharp fall on the meeting headlines, sterling later recovered most of the decline.

Meanwhile the global theme continues to be strong economic data. UK October GDP cruised past expectations of a flat reading with a 0.4% gain. Industrial production was also firmer in the month.


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