Hot-Charts
About that USDKNOK Trade
by
Mar 16, 2009 13:19
| 5 Comments
USDNOK is down 8% from its 7.28 high of March 3. Readers of the Hot-Charts from Feb 11th and Feb 26th were warned of emerging bearishness in the pair (bullishness in NOK) on a combination of technicals (repetitive failures to breach above 7.30) and fundamentals, hefty Norwegian trade surplus and higher interest rates (2.50%). Weekly chart adds credence to a bearish pennant as seen through lower highs in recent weeks. Considering the emerging rally in global equities and broadening negative sentiment in the USD, USDNOK faces interim support at 6.61, a break of which to call up 6.50, followed by 6.38. Upside swings are seen limited to 6.95 and 7.20.
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Mar 17, 2023 21:28 | by Ashraf Laidi.
Ashraf
Don't konw if this particular thread has been discontinued or not - If yes, I'll send my question via alternative means.
Otherwise, thank you for the information regarding the 60/30/10 Tri-Currency strategy for allocating my cash assets (NOK,EUR, and USD respectively) - it was greatly appreciated and is in the process of being implemented even as we speak.
Otherwise, I choose to ask my question here as it continues on the USDNOK theme - and addresses issues that you may or may not be aware of, but I believe that you will find it interesting:
Regarding North Sea Oil and Gas:
As the Danish government also has drilling rights in the North Sea (operated by Mrsk) along with the UK and Norway, among others - we here in Denmark have above average insight in various technical matters pertaining to the issue.
Ingenren ("Engineer" in engilsh - the leading industrial periodicle) has published a series of interesting articles regarding Peak Oil in the North Sea, this one among others: http://ing.dk/artikel/89324
Although I am familiar with your extraordinary portfolio of languages that you command - I am going to ASSUME ;) that it does not include any of the scandinavian languages and will take the liberty of tranlating a brief synopsis:
The Headline for the article is "In 10 Years, we (Danmark implied) will have to import oil again"
In short, the article is referring to the Danish Ministry of Energy's latest findings and evaluation regarding our North Sea Oil reserves, which is currently dwindling at a rate that results in only approximately 9 years worth of oil left (based on 2008's rate of consumption...)
The concensus is that by 2018 - Denmark will once again have oil tankers in its harbors IMPORTING oil for the first time since 1963, and that natural gas imports will commence already by 2016.
If we assume (again? many assumptions...) that the Norwegian reserves are proportionately the same, would a scenario like that mean that NOK's long-term strength ends at that point?
Instinctively, I would personally think "YES - Most Definitely!!!" but I would like to hear your eventual confirmation.
Question 2 - If we limit our "Long Term" analysis to the rest of 2009 and 2010, for example, do you see USDNOK falling back to October 2008 levels? Do you eventually see even FURTHER decline? Please elaborate on your definition of the possiblities for the next couple of years.
In the spirit of open source and sharing information, I am delighted to MAYBE have the possiblity of reciprocating by sharing a little bit of information with you as well, both now and in the future.
Looking forward to any and all replies, and Thank You again.
Regards,
Keith Marable
What I wrote in the book about the dollar/commodities was a more fundamental/long term call. Do i think the current decline in the dollar is the big move? I do not think so yet. We may have one more leg of stocks weakness in the summer (USD rebound) before a proper commodity boom is ahead. But of you want to snap up metals and energy on the cheap, good to do it now. Once inflation becomes full fledged, central banks will have to sterilize more of their purchases, while some of them could even raise rates (Aussie, NZealand, China, Scandinavians).
Please write your own book review on Amazon when your'e done. Thanks !
Ashraf
As you have written in your book and mentioned in your last article, we will see a falling USD. Will this then ignite a rally in the commodities? If yes how will then the US fight the inflation caused by the rising commodity prices and how will that effect the US economy in the long term?
Thanks
Houram