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GBPCHF is Done

by Ashraf Laidi
Jun 18, 2009 11:28 | 17 Comments

GBPCHF is Done - GBPCHF June 18 (Chart 1)

Today's +300-pip decline in GBPCHF is considered to be the beginning of a gradual downtrend towards the bottom of the 7-month rising channel. Weak data from UK retail sales and CBI as well as the SNBs signalling its satisfaction with recent franc-selling intervention has weighed heavily on the cross. GBCHF tests its 200-day MA of 1.7450. The cross is a very active pair during risk aversion swings and notorious for carry trade unwinding). Selling is especially expected on fresh selling in equities. Preliminary target stands at 1.7390, 1.7220 and 1.71. Rebound is seen capped at 1.766. EURCHF also seen testing below 1.5 towards 1.4930.

**** N.B. THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK INTERVENED SHORTLY AFTER THIS POST, PROPELLING GBPCHF BY 300 PTS BECAUSE CHF WAS STRENGTHENING EXCESSIVELY AFTER ITS STATEMENT****therefore resistance is being lifted to 1.7750s, but new downtrend seen intact.

UPDATED RESISTANCE at 1.7970, 50% of pullback from 2.49 to 1.5186

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 17) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jun 28, 2009 16:07
Steven, and that supports my forecast to fx handler about why CHFJPY must decline and break the channel

Ashraf
Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
16 years ago
Jun 28, 2009 16:03
Listening to Bloomberg podcast. Ian Stannard at BNP Paripas sees Euro/CHF moving towards 155 given SNB wont tolerate further appreciation of CHF.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 16:27
Gunjack, yes. that is correct. Weekly chart shows trend line support at 1.7220-00. any bounce is seen limited at 1.76.

Ashraf
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
16 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 16:01
Hi Ashraf - Am I correct in reading as per your twitter update you see further potential for GBPCHF towards 1.74?

Thanks
Gunjack
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 17:35
aechon, the trend line resistance from the Nov 2007 high of 2.41 had been broken but not the one since Aug 2007. Liked i said in my updated HotChart, the next key level appears to be 1.7970, 50% retracement of 2.0755-1.5157 decline. Yes the uptrend appears sharp. but it was last week's decline in stocks and GBP that led me to jump on the downtrend only for SNB to intervene. so stops out to be placed at 1.8050. I also see strength in CHF vs EUR DESPITE the intervention from SNB. chart shows SNB is fighting the natural trend.

Ashraf
aechon
Canada
Posts: 3
16 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 16:21
PS.....trying to find a correlation pair to trade off of is seemingly useless also....
aechon
aechon
Canada
Posts: 3
16 years ago
Jun 21, 2009 16:19
Hi, Ashraf,
I hope you have had a good weekend.

GBP is absolutely relentless against the Swissy. Per my (poor) TL drawing it appears as though we have broken above the down trend line from May '07; all of my momentum and strength work shows continuation on a daily and weekly level along with strong MA underpinnings. Can you please let me know where you see the weakness in this pair...I am short extensively due to trying to defend against a short sighted trade against the SNB bounce; totally away from my system...one of those...that's just gotta correct kinda trades that should have been left in kindergarden. Many thanks.
aechon
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jun 18, 2009 20:13
GBPCHF TRENDLINE RESISTANCE OF 1.7790 EXTENDING SINCE AUGUST CONTINUES TO HOLD. WATCH THAT CAREFULLY

ASHRAF
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jun 18, 2009 20:11
stubbs, no worries, everyone who bought CHF today got wacked

A
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
16 years ago
Jun 18, 2009 19:43
Hey, Forextrader
Thanks for the information.

Good luck for your trading.

Cheers!!
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