Ashraf Laidi on CNBC on the GDP, FOMC & Summers/Yellen - Jul 30, 2013
Jul 30, 2013 17:25
Ashraf discusses the reasons for tapering, the upcoming GDP, FOMC releases and on the race for Fed Chariman by Larry Summers and Janet Yellen.
6 reasons the Fed will/must taper in September
1. Record highs in US equities
2. 6-year highs in US consumer sentiment
3. Longest streak of +100K NFP in 12 years
4. 6-year lows in unemployment rate
5. Bernanke is highly unlikely to leave this year depart without a tweek in the asset purchasing program. Failing to do so would label him as Greenspan Bubble Master #2, starting the QE bubble without a plan to end it or even scaling it down.
6. Cannot afford a new round of USD weakness at expense of strengthening currencies of weaker economies.
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Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be ugly.
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