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More disappointing US housing figures are unlikely to further boost USD on risk aversion because (i) prolonged US data deterioration bolsters the case for a fresh asset pruchases from the Fed; and (ii) of the latest upside surprise in German August IFO survey. While the latest 3-year high in...

JAPAN & GERMANY in the spot light, with the Japanese making more ineffective talk regarding the yen and German Aug IFO due at 8 am GMT. More on IFO below. Talk that the the BoJ may hold an extraordinary meeting to consider additional monetary easing is not helping to weaken the yen, while Japan...

UK Q2 GDP KNOCKS IT OUT OF THE PARK, rising 1.1% q/q vs. expected +0.5%, and +1/6% y/y vs. exp +1.1%. This is the first annual rise in 8 quarters. Services sector rose 0.9% q/q highest since Q1 2007. Although the FTSE-100 is up only 2 pts, there is sufficient risk appetite (from Asia) to boost...

EURUSD LOSES GROUND to join the commodity currencies on the downside after German IFO sentiment survey slipped in May to 101.5 from 101.6 vs expectations of a rise to 102. NIKKEI-225 GAPPED DOWN 240 pts on Friday following its 300-pt Thursday decline. Dow-30, S&P500 & Nikkei-225 all retested the...

GBP drops across the board as Bank of England Governor King continues his perfect track record of dragging down the currency lower each time he speaks since August. Todays parliamentary testimony reiterated that the CPI increase was temporary before falling back below the 2% target in H2, and that...

Yen is best performing currency of the day (after NOK). CADJPY falls by more than 60 pips from the last IMT calling for declines in the pair. USDJPY hits 91.10 target, with 90.80 remaining viable, while gold demonstrates another high profile failure at 1123. Subseq target for CADJPY stand at...

Tuesdays release of German Jan IFO (9:00 am GMT) climate survey is expected to show the 11th consecutive monthly increase, but the expectations component will be scrutinized after recent declines in the ZEWs investor sentiment survey. Tuesdays release of UK Q4 GDP (9:30 am GMT) is expected at...

European equities push higher amid stabilizing fears from the Obama financial regulation plan and hopes that Fed Chairman Bernanke will get the necessary votes to be renominated for a second term. Dow futures are up 90 pts to 10,241. Monday rebounds following negative weeks in equities are a usual...

The combination of the negative news flow from the Eurozone and last weeks SNB announcement to halt its 9-month old policy of bond purchases has dealt a blow to the EURCHF pair, dragging it to a 9-month low of $1.49. The SNB had acted to stabilize the pair by selling CHF for euros at 1.50 and...

The 10% increase in Oct existing home sales was nearly 10 times greater than expected but currencies fail to show any significant shift towards risk plays, as EURUSD remains shy of $1.50, $GBPUSD under at 1.67 and USDCAD above 1.05. The REAL TEST will be tomorrows preliminary (second revision) of...

A Thanksgiving-shortened week in the US will not prevent it from being a busy calendar week (US Exist/New home sales, Pers. pending, Q3 revised GDP, German Q3 GDP, German IFO, Canadian retail sales). CAN Sep retail sales 13:30 GMT expected to slow to 0.6% from 0.8% and core sales (ex autos) exp at...

UK Q3 GDP DUE at 8:30 am GMT (9:30 am BST) exp +0.2% q/q from previous -0.6% and exp -4.6% y/y from prev -5.50% y/y. German October IFO Business Climate index did rise but fell short of expectations as the Business Climate Index hit 91.9 (vs exp 92); Current Conditions at 87.3 (vs exp 88.0)....

Slower than expected rise in German September IFO survey was in line with the weaker than expected advance in the ZEW survey for the same month. The 6th consecutive increase in the IFO climate index reflects the expectations element of the survey, but apparent signs of a peak in the optimism could...

Medium term trends indicate the US yield curve is ready for a major break out at the expense of the USD, while LIBOR trends offer more downside room for GBP. ...

Asian markets rebounded and German Aug IFO indices were stronger than expected across the board; sentiment rose to 90.5 from prev 87.3, current conditions at 86.1 from 84.3, expectations to 95 from 90.4. But markets remain sceptical of the IFOs usual pattern of showing sharp gains in the...

We're witnessing more signs of peaking appetite, this time inside the individual Forex pairs, as well as more failure in oil and Chinese stocks...

Risk appetite is abruptly cut after the unexpected decline in US July retail sales of 0.1% (exp 0.7%) and the 0.6% decline in sales ex autos. Dow futures down 50% from +110 pts, while USD and JPY build up gains vs most currencies. Weekly jobless claims rose to 558K from 554K. Any decline in oil...

CALIFORNIA SCREAMIN': Moodys' Puts California on Watch for a possible credit DOWNGRADE that could be by several notches. Dollar was deepenening weakness despite stocks paring their earlier gains as bond yields fall sharply. MORE UPDATES http://twitter.com/alaidi Bargain hunting is said to be...

Bernanke's FOMC will use "disinflationary" reference to containing yields rather than benign growth. Thursday is his 2nd chance. ...

German IFO survey at 8 am GMT (9:00 London). Watch the Current Assessment/Situation component of the IFO survey whether finally rose from 82.7 after falling continuously since the summer. GBP drops across the board as reports crop up on a possible downgrade of UKs credit rating following the...

Germany's IFO business survey showed an unexpected in 2 of its 3 component indices in January, further extending the existing rally in European and antipodean currencies against the US dollar. Considering the IFO surveys historically effective track record in prompting sharp moves in the euro (up...

NOT what the dollar wants to hear: According to Reuters:"White House says Fed has fired most of bullets on monetary policy, need fiscal stimulus now". Combining this headline with White House's stepping up of pressure on China's currency, the outlook for the US dollar may become challenging,...

Tracking treasury yields can be helpful in dissecting the USD-GOLD relationship. ...

EURUSD unlikely to repeat last week's wobbly tone especially ahead of the zero-bound FOMC. Interim resistance stands at $1.3250 but more challenging obstacle stands at 50-day MA of $1.3320. GBPUSD made its obligatory bounce from the latest 23-year low of $1.35, but gains are increasingly capped...

USDCAD drops below 1.26, on its way to aforementioned end of week target of 1.24. Gold extends gains to $822/oz, up over $35 in past 2 sessions. Key target stands at 100 day MA of $831. One way to highlight the strengthening role of risk appetite on currencies is the EUR's shrugging of the worst...

Market turmoil deepens as US auto manufacturers, retailers and shippers, are forced into making fresh waves of layoffs, feeding off the negative loop from rising employment, falling consumption, lower earnings and eroding bank credit. ...

USDJPY seen capped at trend line resistance of 93.75-80 yen, followed by considerable selling at 94.20, while downside target stands at 92.30 and 91.80. GBPUSD unlikely to extend gains beyond $1.5640s, where selling pressure seen driving renewed downside towards $1.5380s, followed by $1.5310....

The Swiss Franc outperform the yen as forex traders seek refuge to the least risky currency on soaring LIBOR rates, weak US data, GE earnings downgrade and rising odds of a Fed cut. ...

Fresh 3-year lows in German IFO survey will sustain further euro weakness and slow the rate of deterioration in the dollar. ...

German Sept IFO lower than expected across the board. Climate index 92.9 vs exp 94.1; Current Assessment index 99.8 vs exp 101.9; Expetctations Index 86.5 vs exp 87.3. EUR strengthens despite the news and the fact that IFO survey was taken before last week's market metdown. GBPUSD shorts may be...