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GDPs, BERNANKE & CONSUMER SENTIMENT: UK Q2 GDP (4:30 EST, 8:30 am GMT, 9:30 BST) is expected to remain unrevised at 1.1% (the highest rise in 4 years), but any downward revision will likely ease cable into the $1.5570s.========= US Q2 GDP (8:30 EST, 12:30 GMT) seen revised to 1.3% from the advance...

#082410.gif_640W.gif# The EUR/USD has rebounded off the key 50% retracement level at 1.26 to highlight the possible completion of a 5-wave down-move off the August high. While 4-hourly bullish diverging studies hint of a period of base building, reclaiming the key 1.2732 swing low is required...

ITS ONLY TUESDAY as JPY makes the transition from rising to soaring amid inaction from Japanese officials. Readers of this website have been warned of 81-80 in USDJPY since January before it was fashionable to do so. Cracks inside the FOMC about renewing QE, forecasts of a possible UK recession by...

DATA DOUBLE PUNCH HITS MARKETS as US jobless claims jump by 500K (highest since Nov), Aug Philly Fed -7.7 (lowest since Jul 2009) put life back in the yen as risk aversion intensifies (S&P500 -1.6% testing 1075). USDJPY testing 84.80, AUDJPY eyes 75.50, EURCHF loses 200 pips now testing 1.3180...

#081710.gif_640W.gif# The USD/JPY is showing tentative signs of exhausting a long-term downtrend. Last week's low found support exactly at the 2009 reaction low to hint of the completion of a large five-wave structure that originates from the 2007 high. The last leg down also resembles a...

DUBIOUS BOUNCE IN SENTIMENT following strong Q2 GDP figures in Eurozone (1.7% q/q) and Germany (2.2%) has weighed on USD and JPY but both currencies are now off their lows as markets remain cautious ahead of US Jul retail sales and consumer sentiment. S&P500 yesterday closed below its 55-day MA...

THE ONCE SOARING AUSSIE is now underperforming vs EUR & GBP, supporting my bias in favour of EURAUD and GBPAUD. The previous decline did not extend below the 1.43 and 1.70 support and upside remains intact. See HOTCHART in this website. Meanwhile, here's a look at the relationship between USDJPY...

BEST OF BOTH WORLDS FOR KIWI SHORTS US equities sell-off as jobless claims rise +479K, highest since April, adding to NZD losses against USD and JPY. Being a high yielding FX currency, NZD is among the usual victims of risk aversion, especially after higher than expected rise in NZ unemployment....

YEN TAKES OVER as stocks retreat across the board and especially by the fact that markets are paying less attention to Japanese policy makers who indicate that theyre closely watching currency yen movements. FALLING BOND YIELDS are also helping to boost the yen as the US 2-year yield hit a new...

EURUSD EXTENDS rally across the board after closing above the important $1.3130 resistance yesterday. Despite a modest pullback in equities; risk currencies extend gains versus USD. EURUSD eyes 1.3270, previous support from mid March to early April. USDCAD struggling to recovery above 1.0270 but...

YEN STRENGTH EXTENDED overnight after Japanese govt officials said a rising yen should be dealt with monetary policy rather than intervention. The 158-pt decline of the Nikkei-225 is largely the result of currency strength. As European equities and US futures dip into negative territory; EURJPY,...

US NEW HOME SALES shot up 23.6% in June (highest rise since 1980) following a revised decline of 36.7% in June. The decline the supply of new homes to 7.6 months from 9.6 months is also helping to lift equities at the expense of JPY and USD. Extended gains in risk appetite boost EURUSD to $1.2955;...

MIXED FORECASTS for todays June new home sales report from the US, with some economists expecting a rise to 320K from 300K, while others seeing 280K. Although the May report showed a 32.7% plunge to 300K, we may yet see another decline, in which case could exacerbate the existing decline in USDJPY...

YEN RALLIES across the board, unwinding some of last weeks losses; USDJPY fails to break 87.70 50% retracement of the 89.13-86.28 decline, now eyeing 86.80 prelim support; US June new home sales. CADJPY continues to turn the corner, eyeing 83.40s from the current 84.00s after having failed the...

GOLDs LOWER HIGHS testing the 100-day MA of 1180 but with the price and stochastics suggesting $1,220 is behind us for now and the next downside target stands at 1165-70, a break of which could lead to 1120. The main drivers of a fresh gold rally remain 1) renewed Euro crisis/bad news on stress...

Yen strength is here to stay especially as the US dollar's safe-haven lustre is eroded by the worsening US data. ...

MIXED US DATA as US June PPI falls 0.5% vs. exp 0.1% decline, Empire State index WORSENS to 5 from 19.6 with broad declines in New Orders and Employment Index. The good news is the 21K decrease in jobless claims to 429K. WATCH US JUNE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (13:15 GMT) which could show the first...

EURJPY 5% month-to-date recovery looks . . . vulnerable to a downward correction as the uncertainty from US corporate earnings meets overlaps with the multi-faceted interpretation of the Eurozone...

YIELDS AND STOCKS TURN HIGHER at the expense of JPY. USDJPY joins the rest of yen crosses in robust 3-day climb. But the combination of US earnings season and European stress tests starting next week, equities will face another sobering obstacle. The expiration of US jobless benefits and homebuyer...

GLOBAL EQUITIES STRUGGLING again after the 1.7% intraday gains in Wall Street were halved by end of session, translating into lower sessions in Asia. This propped USD and JPY back up against most currencies, but continued to weigh on USDJPY, which I continue to project below 85 in late Q4. USDCAD...

STOCKS SHRUG BROAD declines in the June services ISM survey, whose headline index slipped to 53.8 from 55.4. New orders fell by neary 3 pts to 54,4 and the employment index dropped back below 50. Stocks extended their gains after the report, (Dow +1.5% to 9834, S&P500 +1.7% to 1040) but 10 yr...

THE UNUSUAL SIMULTANEOUS selloff in the US dollar and stocks seems to be in function of tumbling US bond yields as US data continues to disappoint throughout the day. The broad weakness in manufacturing ISM (including the 20-point tumble in the prices paid index to Nov lows), the unexpected 13K...

AWAITING JUNE MANUFACT ISM (exp 59.0 from 59.7), with particular scrutiny given to the new orders and employment indices (previously at 65.7 and 59.8). May construction spending seen at -0.8% from +2.7%, which could also be instrumental in further dragging yen crosses. Jobless Claims surprsed on...

UNEXPECTED 1.2% decline in US May retail sales stands in the way of the risk rally as well as $1.21 barrier. GBPUSD breaks below $1.46 trendline to call up $1.4520. The risk is for an extension of the losses towards $1.4480. USDJPY remains near its session highs of 91.70s, but the pair is known to...

RECURRING INTERVENTION TALK ABOUT SNB as EURCHF jumps 70 pips from $1.3746 low, prompting EUR crosses higher across the board, including EURUSD at 1.1980s. EURCHF seen capped at 1.3910. Japanese Finance Ministry officials also jawboning as they issue the standard warning against excessive...

200-DAY MA RESISTANCE. And once again 1107 in S&P500 and 10290 in the Dow-30 continue to hold as key ceilings for nearly 2 weeks, representing the 200-day moving averages. Last Friday, these levels were abt to break only for the Fitch downgrade of Spain to stand in the way. Could todays jobs...

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART http://chart.ly/8nv646 shows USDJPY may lag behind behind other yen crosses because USD is underperforming other currencies during the current bounce in risk appetite. The break of the GREEN TRIANGLE triggers an extension into the RED CHANNEL, which suggests a possible...

YEN BIGGEST LOSER in Asian trade on a combination of improved risk appetite and a split in the Japanese govt coalition. Japans Social Democratic Party has exited the tri-partite coalition (SDP, DPJ and PNP) after the DPJ's decision to allow the US military base to stay in Okinawa rather than have...

YEN WEAKER THAN USD as stocks extend their bounce, but care must be paid as Dow-30 and SP500 approach their 200-day MAs (see previous IMT). As we argued yesterday, CAD is seen as the PREFERRED RISK CURRENCY ahead of next weeks expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada. Techs & Funds suggest more...

The USD and JPY cylinders are burning thru the markets again, with USD holding an edge of JPY due to the tensions between the 2 Koreas. But this may be a shortlived calm before the next JPY storm, paving way for 108 in EURJPY, 127.80 in GBPJPY and 83.60 in CADJPY. USDJPY still trades w/in the...