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Results: 171 to 180 of 1,000
Results: 171 to 180 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Narrating or Ignoring Reversals
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 13, 2022 20:53
Beware of narratives aimed at explaining market reactions, but it's crucial....The sharp selloff in indices, metals and bonds lasted no more than 20 minutes,....CPI was indeed hot, but core goods prices were unchanged...What about the action in FX and metals? Any bear market rallies there?....Soaring from the abyss, but Friday always a test....Before we start with FX and metals, it's crucial remind of the implications....We saw last spring several instance when market closed up above 2% to return....Today's bounce in the S&P500 bears more significance as the index is....5% earlier in the futures session...Most impressively, the rally in the S&P500 emerged to rally of the abyss....It also managed to close above the 200-week MA of 3600...nbsp;....The other remaining test is Fridays...The last time major indices closed Friday in the green was on September 9th...Today's bullish engulfing candle certainly suggests a Friday up session...But next week is a whole different test...nbsp;....Yuan, DXY and Gold....USDCNH (often a better proxy for USD than the DX index) continued to fail at....20 resistance, coinciding with the twin highs from Aug 2019 and May 2020...The chart shows what happened to gold and DXY after each of those peaks...A similar story ensued at the double top of Dec 2016 and November 2018...nbsp;....Let's not forget how silver has embarked a on a 6-week uptrend of higher....nbsp; Combine this with the inflection points of CNH and XAUUSD and we bulls....China observers may also add president Xi Jinping would want a firm currency....What if Xi announces a spending-lend growth plan, powering global risk and....DXY shows a similar lower highs formation seen in US 10-year yields or....nbsp; But we've seen that pattern before—when DXY stabilizes at the....The more pertinent details are found below...USDJPY finally broke above its high from August 1998 high of 147...66 by one pip...The pair is up 22% so far this year, and up 44% from the 2021 lows...The Bank of Japan may have benefited from a shift in attention away from it....Whether the BoE's emergency gilt-buying program is a stark reminder of....nbsp;....But first, will the BoE stick to its decision to end the 13-day gilt-buying....Failure to reverse his tax cuts could turn the BoE into the BoJ...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Carney’s Arrival & FTSE-100 Technicals
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 2, 2013 18:05The latest on Mark Carney's likely policies, forward guidance and charting....Full analysis and charts.. -
Intraday Market Thought: GBPJPY, Carney & Abe’s Upper House
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 18, 2013 11:31Favouring EURJPY and GBPJPY ahead of Japan's Sunday Upper House elections....GBPJPY chart & analysis.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Bernanke’s USD Bounce & Soaring SHIBOR
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 21, 2013 11:58
The most important element to determining a Fed taper this year shall....If the projected decline in US unemployment does materialize, and the....0%, then will the Fed truly be able to reduce purchases to say, $70 bn or $65....So what if there is a complete seizing of China's credit markets? Rest of..
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Intraday Market Thought: Aussie’s Brief Reprieve Ahead of RBA
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 1, 2013 19:04The damaged Aussie attempts some stabilization after a 14% decline over....Last week's IMF's report warning of capital flight out of the Aussie, the....See full article and chart.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Silver’s Downward Spiral vs Gold
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 24, 2013 21:29Following gold's two failed rallies of 12% and 6% in April and May respectively,....This may intensify silver damage, particularly as the Gold/Silver ratio....More charts & analysis here.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Fed’s Symmetric Rhetoric to Boost USD
by Ashraf Laidi | May 22, 2013 18:58The Fed's repetitive references to tapering asset purchases and increasing....As the economy cools off, the doves at the Fed are on a mission to restore a....Only this time, the yen's occasional gains during rare risk aversion become....continue here. -
Intraday Market Thought: OPEC Nears Deal
by Adam Button | May 22, 2017 23:02
Saudi Arabia's oil minister made a trip to Iraq Monday and shored up....On Monday, the kiwi was the top performer while the pound lagged...A speech from the Fed's Brainard later could be telling...There are 5 Premium trades currently open...Saudi's Al-Falih traveled to Iraq amidst reports that Baghdad, Oman and....His plan worked and late in the day, Iraqi officials said they were on board...nbsp;....What's puzzling is that Iraq has been one of the worst violators of the....Al-Falih was confident a nine-month deal is coming so that could move the....The wildcard remains Iran...Leaders there have been less-enthusiastic about cuts and the....On the topic of oil, the Fed's Kaplan talked about US share on Monday....He also hinted that breakeven points are coming down...A huge risk for 2018 is that US supply continues to climb and it forces OPEC to....On monetary policy, Kaplan's comments where characterized as....Indeed he said he still favors 2 more hikes this year but he repeatedly warned....At the moment, the Fed calendar until the June 3 blackout is quiet in terms of....That's likely to change as talks are added but at the moment, the only Fed....She's a dove but s also one of the first policymakers who tipped the March....If she drops any hawkish hints, it could send the dollar skyward.
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Intraday Market Thought: Saudi-Canada Split Sours
by Adam Button | Aug 9, 2018 10:51
The spat between Saudi Arabia and Canada turned into an economic battle with....The yen was the top performer Wednesday but lost ground in Thursday Asia trade,....A new Premium trade will be posted ahead of the start of the US session...هل فاتك وقت بيع الإسترليني؟....Saudi Arabian officials ordered the divestiture of all Canadian financial....That helps to explain Tuesday's unusual drop in CAD and Canadian markets...The selling continued after the report and USD/CAD rose to 1...3118...It's not entirely clear that everything will be sold and the....Considering Canada's usual weightings, we would expect something in....In terms of CAD, it's the kind of flow that can easily be absorbed at the....Saudi Arabia plans to remove 17,000 students from Canada including hundreds....The nations also have an arms deal worth $15 billion that was the genesis of....It hasn't yet been cancelled but it likely will be...It's grown into an international incident at this point and the US has....There are plenty of reasons for both sides to back down but no sign of any....What's the impact for the Canadian dollar? Ultimately, it's a small....One key is the US unwillingness to come to Canada's side, reflecting the....Don't forget Friday's Canada jobs report, expected to show employment....9% from 6...0%....Friday will also release UK Q2 GDP and US CPI.
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Intraday Market Thought: Careful this week
by Adam Button | Jan 28, 2019 12:31
A busy week lies ahead: Brexit amendment vote on Tuesday, US Q4 revised GDP, Fed....USD/CNY drops to key technical support (see more below)....The pound starts the week on a lacklustre tone but holds to the bulk of....It helps to continue a run that made the pound the top performer last week...Carney and Draghi speak around 14:00-14:30 GMT/London...4 out of our 6 open Premium trades are currently in the green, with the 2....GBP dynamics are all about limiting Theresa May's options...The Brexit amendment vote is due Tuesday, which may limit her ability to leave....That exposes her other frank where many members of her party believe she can'....The 2...5% jump in cable in the past week shows a market less fearful of a no-deal....Any of those would be a near-term tailwind for sterling...One risk is that uncertainty could begin to show up in the data but the risks....Consumers may retrench but businesses may be stockpiling...The Bank of England may have some insights on Monday when Carney,....Carney's latest Brexit-related insights highlighted that the sterling&....Meanwhile the US dollar came under substantial selling pressure on Friday....Even the end to the shutdown brought only minor and temporary relief...A few factors may have weighted...The WSJ reported that the Fed is considering keeping a bigger balance....It's framed as a technical decision but the timing appears dovish...The arrest of Roger Stone was a reminder that Mueller's probe is nearing a....The PBOC tweaked rules to add an extra 250 billion yuan in lending...USD/CNY reaches a 6-month low, touching its 200-DMA as the topic of CNY acquires....Here's what we said on Friday about the CNY and USD...The slump in the dollar led to a one-month high in NZD/USD, an 11-day high in....Gold's best months over the past 15 years have proven to be January and....Goldilocks inflation is especially postv when Fed moves from hawksh to neutral..
