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  • Intraday Market Thought: Indices, Silver & Trade Winds

    by Adam Button | Sep 23, 2019 14:01
    Indices, Silver & Trade Winds Chart Global equity indices are back in the red with silver sharply higher on....The Euro is on the backfoot after German PMI manufacturing sustained its shapest....Draghi's speech at the European Parliament starts at 9:00 am Eastern (2....Today's appearancees from Fed members include NY Fed's Williams,....Louis Fed's Bullard (who voted for a 50-bp rate cut last week)....It is official, the Fed's liquidity injections are here to stay for another....GBP awaits Tuesday's UK Supreme Court ruling on the proroguing of....Euro shorts stormed back in the latest CFTC data...All 3 existing trades from the Premium Insights are in the green...http://ashraflaidi...com/forex-poll/will-fed-do-qe4....Reports and denials about Chinese officials leave trade talks early....Markets were roiled late on Friday on a report that Chinese officials had....Risk trades dropped on a sign that talks had come undone; something that was....On the weekend, however, both sides released statements saying that mid-....A NYT report said the trips were cancelled by the Chinese side to avoid....That led to early buying in yen crosses...It also underscored how sensitive markets will continue to be to any sign....Looking ahead, GBP traders are eagerly awaiting Tuesday's UK Supreme Court....In the US, the September prelim US PMIs from Markit are due at 1345 GMT...The manufacturing reading is expected at 50...4 and services at 51...5; both improvements from August...Fedspeak includes Williams, Daly and Bullard...Silver outperforms all, while gold pulls back from Sunday night's high as....Fed's Injections Extended to Oct 10....After four bouts of injections last week, the Federal Reserve has decided to....24, Sept...26 and Sept...27...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -69K vs -50K prior...GBP -86K vs -92K prior...JPY +24K vs +33K prior...CHF -5K vs -7K prior...CAD +20K vs +12K prior...AUD -59K vs -61K prior...NZD -36K vs -30K prior....Euro shorts had faded to 39K at the start of the month but they have been....The divergence in CAD positioning versus the antipodeans continues to diverge.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Pound Jumps, China Inflation Surges

    by Adam Button | Nov 11, 2019 16:43
    Pound Jumps, China Inflation Surges Chart The pound jumped by a full cent to 1...2898 after Brexit Party chief Nigel Farage said his party will not run in....China's consumer inflation hit 7-year highs, complicating the PBOC's....CFTC positioning data showed growing CAD longs and EUR shorts...This week's market highlights include: UK jobs (Tues), UK and US CPI....Gold printed 1448, stopping us out at 1450...A new Charts analysis on gold has been sent to the Premium subscribers...Farage Decides....The pound's surge emerged after Farage said his party will not contest....Farage said his Brexit Party will only contest the +320 seats in mainland....It would be a risk and danger to pound bulls in the event that Leave....China Inflation Dilemma....Chinese CPI rose to 3...8% y/y in October in a surge from 3...0% in September...That was much higher than 3...4% anticipated as inflation has accelerated from 1...5% y/y in February...It's the highest reading since January 2012...The big caveat in the report is pork prices...They've jumped recently because of African swine fever and the trade war...The PPI report showed pipeline prices down 1...6% y/y, slightly worse than the 1...5% expected...Last week, China's central bank lowered one-year medium-term lending....30% to 3...25%....That has the spillover effect of lowering the loan prime rate (LPR) which....While the drop in rates is token in size, it was likely a signal of more easing....A Global Times report Friday said monetary policy may 'switch gears&....The CPI report probably won't derail that plan but it may forced....Much of that will depend on how the trade war shakes out...Surging Treasury yields and record highs in the S&P 500 signal optimism but....Peter Navarro said on the weekend that there is no agreement to rollback any....No one has forgotten how Trump flipped the tariff script on July 31 with a....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -61K vs -53K prior...GBP -29K vs -32K prior...JPY -27K vs -20K prior...CHF -14K vs -12K prior...CAD +54K vs 44K prior...AUD -27K vs -40K prior...NZD -39K vs -40K prior....The soft Canadian jobs report on Friday surely sent a shudder through the....Meanwhile, the euro continues to cement its reputation as the funding currency....That should cap its upside even if the global economy picks up...Finally, AUD shorts were quick to cover following the RBA...This week, it will be interesting to see if NZD can rally even if/when the RBNZ....That would be an early signal of a bottom.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed To Take It Slow

    by Adam Button | Feb 2, 2017 0:23
    Fed To Take It Slow Chart The FOMC decision gave a nod to better sentiment but offered no guidance on how....The US dollar slumped after the announcement with a March hike more in....A new Premium trade has been added, backed by 6 reasons and 3 charts...Having broken a key moving average for the 1st time in 366 days, this trade is....The Fed funds futures pricing for a March 15 hike is at 32...0%....That's rich given the FOMC statement was largely the same...There was a notable upgrade on consumer sentiment and it removed some caveats on....The Fed said the balance of risks was neutral and that hikes will be gradual...The FOMC is clearly in wait-and-see mode on the economy and politics...About half the FOMC upgraded forecasts to include fiscal stimulus but that'....They want to see some hard evidence from Congress before they proceed and they....It's a similar story on the economy...There has been good news but it's been in sentiment and that's....Those high hopes can be unwound quickly unless they're followed by growth....A good sign came from the ADP employment report with private jobs up 246K....The report has been correlating more closely with non-farm payrolls lately....The other notable news was from the UK where the first reading on the Article....The tally was 498 votes to 114 so while the final vote is likely to be closer,....From a trading perspective, we were impressed by the bid in the pound....Some much negativity is priced in and shorts are crowded and taking every....All eyes turn to Thursday's BoE inflation report & Carney's..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Broken Cross Market Correlations

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 10, 2017 18:37
    Broken Cross Market Correlations Chart As cross-market correlations break down further, traders are increasingly urged....The most obvious breakdown is in the relation between the US dollar index and....This has also extended into the breakdown between bond yields and stocks...A new Premium trade was posted last night in a commodity currency, whose....The positive correlation since November was founded on the premise that Trump&....But as the New Year opened and Trump's enthusiastic campaign promises turned....FX and metals traders will inevitably shift their attention to next week's....But Yellen may offer little in the way of clues as she will likely indicate the....e...right before the March FOMC meeting...Until then, the dollar's binary trade will rest upon the timing and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: EUR/CHF & Pre-Fed Positioning

    by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2017 10:51
    EUR/CHF & Pre-Fed Positioning Chart The Fed decision, Brexit, the G20, BOJ and Merkel are getting all the attention....The pound is the worst performer so far today (since Monday's NY close)....A new video for Premium subscribers has been posted (below) on the Pre-Fed....So what's going on with the Swiss franc? The euro gained had gained more....The moves have awoken what was a sleepy trade...That has come in tandem with recent rises in sight deposits, which can....Adding a kink was that Monday's weekly data showed sight deposits down...That was released around the same time that the Swiss stats office bumped its....5% from +0...3%....The thinking goes that SNB and investors remain worried about the elections-....They could fight back by cutting interest rates but that's a tough....It's all a bit headscratching but it has us ready for anything from the SNB...As we wrote yesterday, we're also preparing for the Article 50 trigger...On Monday, parliament voted to give May the final say on the deal with the EU,....The vote now goes back to the House of Lords...There was talk that the clause could be invoked late Tuesday but that's no....The Independent reports that Article 50 won't be triggered until at least....The pound was perky despite continued talk of a Scottish referendum.

  • Article: Protectionism won't Protect USD

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 27, 2017 14:46
    Protectionism won't Protect USD Chart The notion that Trump's planned protectionist measures (tariffs and....nbsp;  We're not in the 1980s or 1990s when US trading partners....Regarding the chart below: Yes, there were other factors driving the USD in....nbsp; But US trade actions are no longer going unanswered...The most recent example was W Bush having to reverse the 2001 steel tariffs....nbsp;   Imagine what the Chinese could do...Historical reminder: Since the 1990s, currency traders have consistently sold....Parallels with February 2002: It is no surprise that George W...Bush's war declaration on foreign steel in late 2001 aimed at saving the....By the time the WTO fined the US $2 bn in sanctions, the US dollar had lost 12%....Not only we reiterate our long-held position that there will be NO parity in....10 towards end of Q2...Next Week's Fed Statement & US Dollar....Considering warnings about USD strength by Trump and Mnuchin, any mention of the..

  • Intraday Market Thought: OPEC Extends, Oil Crumbles

    by Adam Button | May 26, 2017 0:02
    OPEC Extends, Oil Crumbles Chart Crude prices fell 5% as traders sold-the-fact on a 9-month supply cut extension...The US dollar was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged...Japanese CPI is due up next...الإسترليني و النفط: إلى اين؟ (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Management is the art of communication and that extends to market management as....A month ago, a nine-month extension of OPEC/non-OPEC supply cuts would have....Instead, stories began to circulate about a six-month extension...That was followed by talk of a nine-month extension and it was eventually....By the time today's nine-month extension was announced it underwhelmed....80 from $52...00...Brent had a similar 5% fall...The challenge now is to separate the disappointment trade from the....At current levels, oil is well below the Dec-Feb range and is nearing the March....It's still far above May's $44...00 low...An offshoot of the oil trade is USD/CAD...That pair rose 65 pips on Thursday but that's less than the bulls would....You have to wonder if CAD has been hit by so much bad news – and with....Switching gears, the week winds down for Asia-Pacific traders with a Japanese....The April numbers are due at 2330 GMT and expected to be up 0...4% year-over-year but flat excluding fresh food and energy...Another event to watch is a speech from the Fed's Bullard at 0200 GMT...He's said previously that he doesn't think another hike is necessary but....Finally, the RBA's Richards is in a panel presentation at 0430 GMT.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ahead of Fed & ECB Minutes

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 16, 2017 16:13
    Ahead of Fed & ECB Minutes Chart Commodity currencies dominate a quiet Wednesday summer session as traders....nbsp; Recall the dollar fell sharply on that day, partly due to escalating....So what did the Fed say on Jul 27? The Committee made two minor changes: i)....Also note that 3 weeks after the Fed decision, July CPI was a miss...Today's minutes may further enlighten us and whether the inflation....nbsp;....Let's also not forget tomorrow's release of the ECB minutes from the Jul....Today's rally in the DAX and retreat in the euro were spurred by Reuters....Yet, this remains a matter of “when” rather than “if”....A new index trade has been issued to Premium subscribers after the two..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Central Bank Inertia

    by Adam Button | Oct 3, 2017 15:53
    Central Bank Inertia Chart A quite Tuesday in the markets following a fast-moving risk-on Monday and a busy....Germany is closed for a public holiday...The ISM manufacturing index jumped to the highest since 1988 but it might be a....NZD is the day's worst performing currency after a 2% decline in the dairy....The RBA reiterated its concerns with Aussie strength to the extent ot....Tuesday's Premium GBP trade is now in the green...The chart below is one of the 3 charts backing this trade...The ISM manufacturing index rose to 60...1 compared to 58...1 in September and that gave a slight lift to the US dollar...What could lend a more-lasting bid is a hawkish tilt from the Fed...What they're watching for is a genuine sign of inflation...An early one came in the prices paid component, which was at 71...5 compared to 63...0 expected...That's a six year high...The quick take is that hurricanes caused a temporary spike (and the mild USD....Other positive signs for the dollar were construction spending at +0...5% versus +0...4% prior, a rise in the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker to +2...7% from +2...3% and another record for stock markets...GBP broadened losses as interest rate hike speculation took a back seat to the....Disappointing manufacturing and construction PMIs sped up GBP selling,....The RBA reinforced its view that a stronger AUD is "weighing on the....Meanwhile the RBA made a rate cut non-viable as it would further fuel..

  • Intraday Market Thought: China-US Dealmaking Underway

    by Adam Button | May 14, 2018 11:20
    China-US Dealmaking Underway Chart Signs of a thaw on trade between the US and China could help risk appetite to....Last week, the Canadian dollar was the top performer while the kiwi lagged...Yesterday, Trump commented on progress in the US-China trade talks (more in....Euro pushed higher after remarks from ECB's Francois Villeroy de Galhau....Also weighing on USD were statements from Fed's Loretta Mester that the....Trump tweeted that he had instructed the US Commerce Dept to ease up on a parts....It wasn't clear what Trump may have gotten in return but it could be....In any case, it's a small sign of better relations...Late Friday, there were reports that Mexico has begun its annual oil....The Ministry of Finance will spend the next six months locking in 2019....News that it was starting led to some late selling in crude Friday...The decision to lock in prices near the $70s would be more beneficial than last....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +121K vs +121K prior...GBP +9K vs +26K prior...JPY -5K vs -1K prior...CAD -33K vs -19K prior...CHF -33K vs -19K prior...AUD -6K vs -7K prior...NZD +13K vs +17K prior....The two notable moves were to cover sterling longs and to sell the Swiss....The spec market as obviously caught offside in GBP longs and was forced to....The shift into franc shorts might represent more optimism for equities and....The SNB is miles away from a hike into positive territory...nbsp;..
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