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Results: 451 to 460 of 1,000
Results: 451 to 460 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Johnson Wins, GBP Stabilizes
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 23, 2019 19:13
Members of Britain's Conservatives Party have named Boris Johnson as the....Sterling resumed its pre-announcement gains following remarks from EU Brexit....Cable pushed up half a pence off its session lows to 1...2480 before dropping back near 1...2440s amid broadening USD strength...The GBP implied volatility chart may indicate a receding fear factor in....In other news, the IMF downgraded its forecast for 2019 and 2020 global growth....1% to 3...2% and 3...5% respectively...Q1 global trade volumes were revised down to their lowest in 7 years...Since Johnson is widely expected to reiterate his vow for Brexit by end of....The more cracks with the coaltion, the more we're likely to hear about the....nbsp;....On the EU side, Barnier's willingness to consider amending the....The cohesiveness of the Conservatives will also be a key factor for the....nbsp;....Staunch anti-no deal exit such as Cabinet members such as Chancellor....Hammond will lead a group of about 30 Tory MPs aimed at blocking a no-deal....How deep will the fissures in the party be will be the question for the rest of....Meanwhile, we have 9 days until the Bank of England releases its quarterly....BoE governor Carney has already signalled that growth will be revised....FX traders cannot avoid the strengthening US dollar, but they also..
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Intraday Market Thought: A Franc Discussion
by Adam Button | Aug 29, 2019 12:42
The Swiss franc has quietly climbed for four consecutive months but it's....The US dollar led the way Wednesday while the pound lagged...The second look at Q2 US GDP is due up next...The Mystery Chart below is the basis of Tuesday's Premium Insights trade,....Care to guess what it is?....The Swiss National Bank once again finds itself in the unenviable position of....After hitting 1...20 last year the pair has slipped to 1...0875 with relatively little fanfare...It's been consolidating around that level for the past two weeks...One interesting aspect of the franc strength is that it has not been driven....As we noted at the start of the week, CFTC positioning still shows a net short....That may be a result of the long memories of FX traders but it also....EUR/CHF has fallen below 1...10 in the past month and is at the lowest since June 2017...Levels to watch include the 2017 low of 1...0637 and mid-2015 low of 1...0230...It was a quick spike down close to parity in 2011 that prompted the SNB to....Note that both the dawn of the floor and the break of it were in response to....With Draghi preparing for his final act of 'whatever it takes' on Sept....The SNB has no doubt noticed and has lightly been active in the FX market....On Wednesday, the SNB's Maechler highlighted that there is still plenty....Looking ahead, US revised Q2 GDP is due at 12:30 GMT/13:30 London, expected to....0% from 2...1%, annualized...Personal consumption continues to be the main driver of growth with that....3% in the preliminary report...Market risks around the report are minimal...We know that consumers were strong and the economy was solid in the quarter;..
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Intraday Market Thought: EU Stalls, Draghi’s Swan Song Next
by Adam Button | Oct 24, 2019 12:50
Brexit hangs in the balance as EU politicians put off the decision on a....The pound was the top performer once again while the yen lagged...GBP is now the 2nd best perfomer since the start of the year (behind CAD)....The final ECB decision of Draghi's Presidency is due next (more below)....A new (4th) Premium trade will be issued after/during Draghi's press....The pound found a short-term bottom at 1...2840 and rebounded modestly in another sign of dip-buying or short-covering as....Yet uncertainty still remains high as the EU sends mixed signals on what kind....Talk of a UK cabinet meeting will be held at 3 pm London time...France is pushing for the shortest of extensions in the hope of ending the....A longer extension may spark an election and that might cause some short-term....Looking to today, the main event is the ECB decision...Expectations for any kind of change in policy or guidance are nearly nil...The ECB made their move last month and will now play a game of wait-and-see...If anything, Draghi may try to put some positive spin on the economy as he....In all likelihood the market isn't going to react to it because data....On Wednesday, eurozone consumer confidence fell to -7...6 compared to -6...7 expected – that's the worst since January 2018...Looking back at Draghi's term, he will be remembered as a great central....He faced down the eurozone crisis, Brexit and austere fiscal policy and did....Time will tell on whether the ECB pushed to far into experimental policy but at....Lagarde will have a tough act to follow.
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Intraday Market Thought: Yield Curve will Bring Back the Fed
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 22, 2019 18:47Fed rate cuts are out of the conversation, but that's how the.. -
Intraday Market Thought: USD Pauses, Key Levels Pre ISM
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 2, 2019 13:51
USD losing steam across the board as markets await US manufacturing ISM, but....Rallying non-energy commodity currencies are led by the Kiwi after China's....US crude oil bounces after posting the biggest daily drop in 2...5 mths; 3...US futures head back into the red partly on Trump's reinstating tariffs on....NZDJPY was stopped out after China's data...A new FX trade has been issued, supported by 4 charts as agriculture....Indices initially ignored China's insistence on the US to roll back....51 from 109...70s...VIX is up for the 3rd straight session, DAX continues to fail around the 13300....Meanwhille, the divergence between the Dow Jones' industrials and..
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil Trading Misconceptions
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 9, 2020 15:20
ldquo;There is a war, let's buy oil” seems to be an oft-repeated....Instead of arguing whether war will break out in the Middle East, it's....A new Premium video below has been issued to our Premium subscribers,....Starting with Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in early August 1990,....Oil peaked 2 months later at $41, before descending on downward spiral ahead....What about the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003? Oil began rising in the....50 in December 2002 to $40 in February of 2003...Oil fell in the subsequent three months back to mid 20s...Some might say: “But oil rose throughout the rest of 2003 and 2004....Yes, and so did every other commodity and currency against the US dollar, as....Also, don't forget china headed off an infrasctrure building boom, sending....What about now? In an age of excess oil supply courtesy of debt-ridden frackers,..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed May Edge Off Sidelines
by Adam Button | Jan 29, 2020 13:10
Markets resume their broad rebound, powered by strong Apple earnings even as....Bear in mind that firms in the Hubei area are prevented from resuming work....As we move today's Fed decision, market is currently pricing in a 28%....US interest rates haven't moved much in the past decade but the Fed has....Policymakers are clearly and explicitly on the sidelines heading into Wednesday&....Meanwhile, in US politics, Bernie Sanders regains the lead among his....The USD is up against all major currencies, but lower vs gold and silver...NZD and CHF are the weakest...Hard vs Soft Data....Tuesday's US data gave the Fed few things to think about: Consumer....On net, the forward-looking numbers are good but they're also the more-....The problem is that coronavirus has already replaced, if not surpassed, that....With China's economy at a virtual halt for at least the next week, the....That presents the Fed with a difficult decision...If Powell takes a step off the sidelines, then the market may rush into pricing....The market is currently pricing in a 28% chance of a cut in June, rising to 77%....The timing of this meeting is especially tough with the next one not scheduled....In the interim, the coronavirus scare will either result in a full-blown....If the Fed does edge off the sidelines, it will once again reinforce that they....That will be comforting to equities and keep the bid in bonds...The decision is at 1900 GMT with a press conference 30 minutes later...No new forecasts are due.
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Intraday Market Thought: 3 Charts for GBP Traders
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 21, 2020 13:18
GBP traders step back and take a look at 3 key charts: GBP trade weighted index,....Full charts and analysis.
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Intraday Market Thought: Quarter-End Flows Unwind
by Adam Button | Apr 2, 2020 13:09
The only real change in fundamentals Tuesday was the turn of the calendar,....The yen was the top performer while the Canadian dollar lagged...Today, gold, silver and GBP are at the lead...US weekly jobless claims numbers are up next (more below)....The Premium Insights' short in #DOW30 opened on Tuesday was closed....Talk of month-end rebalancing and quarter-end flows completely captivated....It was a classic and much more orderly risk-off day as USD/JPY fell to a three-....It's a signal we're entering the second-phase of coronavirus...The Fed stopped it from being a financial crisis and that was some....Even in Italy where the crisis has clearly hit some kind of plateau, there&....In China, a region of 600,000 people was locked down on a sign of the virus'....Back in the US, the Fed announced it will allow US banks to use more leverage....Looking ahead, the market will once again focus on weekly US initial jobless....The consensus is 3...5m up from 3...28m last week but estimates are extremely wide from 1...5m to 6...5m...At this point, the survey is probably overrated and won't be a lasting....We would love to know true measures of job losses but this survey is more of a....For reference, Canada now says it has processed 2...1m jobless claims benefits in the past two weeks...That's a full 10% of the workforce and would correspond to 21 million job....Is that magnitude priced into US assets? It should be but probably isn't...Frequently during this crisis we see markets reluctant to fully accept the....With non-farm payrolls also surveyed before March 12, we may have to continue..
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Intraday Market Thought: Video Open to Everyone
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 23, 2020 20:29
Many English speakers visiting my website asked why do Arabic speakers get....So how about a Ramadan gift to non-Arabic speakers? I am opening access to....Good luck...Full Video..
