Ashraf, i think its safe to say that gold and silver currently are overbought and are more likely to be sold further if market uncertainties are displaced temporarily with gov't statements. The gold however may break 1000 if eastern European problems manifest to cause equity markets to collapse the recent lows.
There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment in the last HOT-chart post "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "
Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.
It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.
There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment in the last HOT-chart post "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "
Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.
It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.
There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "
Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.
It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.
For EUR/JPY more volatility coming your way so be prepared. 1.10pm est If EUR/JPY drops below 115 now maybe your OK. Otherwise, its risk management time.
Ashraf i dont want to ask this question to you, however, i am uncertain as to "these" withholdings of currency that institutions have on behalf of BoJ that have been dropping. ( i presume the amount is in their balance sheets posted on their site) I have my assumption ...upside down scythe.
Your call for a USD/JPY in mid 70s somewhere along the way is plausable with my dow at 7000, however, i am uncertain as to how the drop in export demand for japan may lower the appreciation of yen. Japan has been protecting their yen from huge appreciation in time of world growth, however, now that deflation is on the horizon would japan risk itself to manipulating yen by increasing public debt (ie through buying corporate bonds like how FED is buying anything that is high-risk no-return paper thereby subsidizing those markets, or allowing more time to revert large positions because FED know how to scare speculators trying to strong elbow the large positions into liquidating.)
USD/JPY cliff after 10 am on 1/21 was due to options expiration on 10am est time. The subsequent upside to USD/JPY is powerful in timing of bids (maybe gov't enterprised operations to prevent yen appreciation) Since the yen spike occured right as the new options became avail, i am assuming one or more powerhouse is long yen and hedged short options.
I am assuming continued risk aversion and more gov't intervention through indirect operations (this looks like an upside down scythe, easy to spot). So you should be fine short EUR/JPY for sometime. Until obama's stimulus package pumping doesnt start, and maybe those fed buying us gov't IOUs dont start.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(1 year ago)
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ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (1 year ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (1 year ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (1 year ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(1 year ago)
Like if bernanke actually initiate buying of treasury securities.
There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment in the last HOT-chart post "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "
Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.
It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.
There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment in the last HOT-chart post "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "
Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.
It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.
There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "
Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.
It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.
Wonder what the USD/JPY jumps today were?
News related, or over sentiment on yen bullish calls?
Wonder what the USD/JPY jumps today were?
News related, or over sentiment on yen bullish calls?
For EUR/JPY more volatility coming your way so be prepared. 1.10pm est
If EUR/JPY drops below 115 now maybe your OK. Otherwise, its risk management time.
Your call for a USD/JPY in mid 70s somewhere along the way is plausable with my dow at 7000, however, i am uncertain as to how the drop in export demand for japan may lower the appreciation of yen. Japan has been protecting their yen from huge appreciation in time of world growth, however, now that deflation is on the horizon would japan risk itself to manipulating yen by increasing public debt (ie through buying corporate bonds like how FED is buying anything that is high-risk no-return paper thereby subsidizing those markets, or allowing more time to revert large positions because FED know how to scare speculators trying to strong elbow the large positions into liquidating.)
USD/JPY cliff after 10 am on 1/21 was due to options expiration on 10am est time. The subsequent upside to USD/JPY is powerful in timing of bids (maybe gov't enterprised operations to prevent yen appreciation) Since the yen spike occured right as the new options became avail, i am assuming one or more powerhouse is long yen and hedged short options.
I am assuming continued risk aversion and more gov't intervention through indirect operations (this looks like an upside down scythe, easy to spot). So you should be fine short EUR/JPY for sometime. Until obama's stimulus package pumping doesnt start, and maybe those fed buying us gov't IOUs dont start.