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193 Posts Total by "carlco":
150 Posts by member
Carlco
(bristol, United Kingdom)
43 Posts by Anonymous "carlco":
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Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 11:54
In Thread: Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
apologies in advance to ask this in this thread.
In hindsight, do you think that letting the financial system default and reset itself, with governments guaranteeing depositors and supplying bridging loans to business where needed, would have been preferential to the walking dead banks and gov. debt levels we see now ?
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 11:18
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
Ashraf , does this mean we have established 162-167 as the trading range now?
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 11:15
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
this is very worrying, it means that all that economic stimulus has achieved as much as it's going to. Not a bad thing for the dollar though, or oil prices. Im only starting to see why the reserve currency price is SO important to world economic recovery, so if it was SO important, the mind boggles as to why the banks and credit rating agencies were allowed to go 'hog wild' with it. unbelievable.
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 9:08
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
i agree ashraf, i also think this is a technical 'head' and we will see a shoulder, but thats a few days away, i reiterate my bearish stance on the indices, everytime the trend line (GBPUSD) is touched the bounce has been big, not this time though.... i heard the phrase 'double dip recession' on BBC this morning that got me even more bearish.
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 22:55
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
actually even though it was non eventful it looks like the GBPUSD started to form a 'head' today, Cameron is setting about Brown about the fact Britain is out of money OECD are even laying the boot in 90billion isn't enough, is this going to be perceived weakness in the GBPUSD.
Americans 'saving' , Bernanke announcing less quantitative easing, doesn't this tighten dollar supply? 16650 is looking just about it, with 4th July i can see this drifting up on light volume to test 16600 if it doesn't, how do you feel about a right shoulder now we are so close to that test of the trend line.
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jun 29, 2009 17:19
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
well that was a bit of a non event day.
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jun 28, 2009 9:29
In Thread: US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart
The BBC News 24 are running a special report series from China these next few weeks. you can find it on BBC iPlayer - Can China save the world - i believe it's a fairly balanced view.
Also OECD latest on world health -http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8116234.stm
I also read sometime ago that last year non_OECD countries surpassed oil consumption of OECD (i think it was oil-so may need correcting on this)
Carlco
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 27, 2009 16:18
In Thread: US Dollar Index 14-Year Chart
thanks Ashraf - that's a great answer - China is a great inspiration on many levels.
BUT. They should be boxing way more clever, they have a fixed currency anything rhetoric is fairly meaningless, in my humble opinion they have bitten the hand that has fed them for 10 years. If the Chinese got more creative they could write off those US Treasury bonds , maybe convert them in some form to the IMF, for the new currency, radical i know, it'll never happen i know, but the upside for the world and chinese kudos let alone Ying and Yang, would be REAL international economic stimulus. The USA would owe China so big time that it probably would concede to some form of joint default currency.
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jun 27, 2009 15:39
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
cougr-interesting point on VIX, i read at CBOE that there was a big AUG 50 CALL this might be a hedge trade for someone- so read into it what you will. the concern for me next week is what Obama does with California's impending $21bil muni. bond default, that could really wobble markets and give an excuse for profit taking, possibly. Im not sure, Ashraf, or anyone, may be able to guide me on this point, what this default may mean for the dollar, as muni bonds are held mainly by general public, would this be the final straw, a race out of any bonds into Gold maybe? i don't know?? anyone?
Carlco
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 27, 2009 12:47
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
cougr- if you read that as a confident post then reread. i am bearish, but the global economic stimulus is unprecedented, so, is that all we get a less than 38.2% retrace in indices? it's going to take a few more months for the stimulus packages to wind on through the system.
Bernanke was also sounding a little too confident giving a little growl when challenged about his authority/secrecy/transparency (his perceived intervention-but that's a whole new thread ;) )
Technically- after the dotcom bubble indices hit a low that hasn't been breached, you need to zoom out to 10year weekly chart, take in the landscape, this is probably the one thing that underlies my apparent confidence.
Is it fair that a few greedy banks created a $30 trillion mess ? (mess-not liability/loss). China, India, Brazil, Australia, are carrying on regardless - relatively unscathed by CDS/CMBS. (by the way CMBS although causing a headache in medium term refinancing aren't looking as big a potential loss as first feared with CDS ie much more equity in them) PLUS- ive just taken a look at volume on NYSE Nasdaq and it's BIG with more stocks advancing than declining from fridays end of day, also end of quarters, so here we go ready for a summer push and light trade can drift stock up really easy.
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