Posts by "carlco"

Ashraf, if oil is falling to $50-5 and USD is supported by falling equities then surely that makes for better economic stimulus ie relatively cheap oil for the world ?
Also although index's have fallen today FTSE retrace on this rally i have key levels 4110 then 3988, S&P 845 then 813. BOTH RSI's have fallen below 30 and %K on both look set to cross later today/tomorrow, i just can't see more than 30 points coming off S&P before a rally. Although FTSE looks close to its 4110 support, it looks like a rally is imminent.

This has caught me by suprise too, the speed of the retest of 162 and breach, but 158 tested when Brown was under pressure a few weeks back, do you think we have that type of momentum to drive the GBPUSD that far? (ie double whammy of risk aversion strengthening the dollar/BoE weakening GBP) if true why USDJPY weakened aswell?

Well Ashraf $2tril reserves won't get you very far, if your population is getting drunk on champagne, haven't they already lent out $500billion so far, my point is that consumer driven economies are what's led us to the state we are in.
Q. As in Japans lost decade, I believe we are heading for a world of stagflation, this 0% interest rate policy i don't really understand the mechanics of it. My point is if it didn't work in Japan with a busted banking system and the rest of the world on boom, how is it going to work now ? Are we to rely on South America, India, Africa, Australia, Russia and China, to drag us out of recession ?
Q. Wouldn't it be best, bizarrely, if the US began raising interest rates now? that would be good for the dollar right? lowering oil prices and getting things moving ?
oh btw, i was listening to a podcast on companies Chapter11's in the US, the banks are sweeping accounts of some medium size firms for all their working capital, even when their assets are 10 times the borrowings, no wonder the West has come to a standstill, this example was a boat builder worth about 500-600 million, borrowings of 60million, it's a disgrace.

cougr- if you read that as a confident post then reread. i am bearish, but the global economic stimulus is unprecedented, so, is that all we get a less than 38.2% retrace in indices? it's going to take a few more months for the stimulus packages to wind on through the system.
Bernanke was also sounding a little too confident giving a little growl when challenged about his authority/secrecy/transparency (his perceived intervention-but that's a whole new thread ;) )
Technically- after the dotcom bubble indices hit a low that hasn't been breached, you need to zoom out to 10year weekly chart, take in the landscape, this is probably the one thing that underlies my apparent confidence.
Is it fair that a few greedy banks created a $30 trillion mess ? (mess-not liability/loss). China, India, Brazil, Australia, are carrying on regardless - relatively unscathed by CDS/CMBS. (by the way CMBS although causing a headache in medium term refinancing aren't looking as big a potential loss as first feared with CDS ie much more equity in them) PLUS- ive just taken a look at volume on NYSE Nasdaq and it's BIG with more stocks advancing than declining from fridays end of day, also end of quarters, so here we go ready for a summer push and light trade can drift stock up really easy.

rsi weekly -overbought, daily-62, the williams %R is oversold though.