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Posts by "cat0nip"

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1999 Posts Total by "cat0nip":
1927 Posts by member
cat0nip
(Frankfurt, Germany)
72 Posts by Anonymous "cat0nip":
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cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 15:10
In Thread: EUR
according to previous plan went short eurusd at 1.43 with 1432 sl
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 13:45
In Thread: EUR
wow the new Greenspan is an octopus... nope we had Paul the prophetic octopus
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 13:43
In Thread: EUR
hum he adopted FED speak....looks like the biggest non-event ever ..no trade yet in EURUSD
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 13:12
In Thread: EUR
what about deposit rate? If that is not hiked and stays at 0.25% the whole hype about the funds rate just a hype. It means nothing in terms of tightening. Rather the opposite
EUribor unchanged EONIA waits to be seen
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 12:20
In Thread: EUR
No doubt to hike is economically pure madness but I think there is no way out. The most likely outcome is 25bp and mumbo jumbo ECB speak at conference. Greenspan has already delivered the script for Trichet for 1 mln USD (!) not EUR.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 11:51
In Thread: EUR
Eur relative strength drops hard vs GBP and JPY majors EURJPY 122. 5 to 121.2
very intransparent
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 8:31
In Thread: EUR
ECB must leave deposit rate unaffected or even reduce "official" deposit rate ( the actual is zero anyway) thus fund rate hike does NOT quell inflation.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 7:10
In Thread: EUR
Yesterday in Swiss TV an SNB official said a couple of interesting stuff:
a:SNB is VERY interested in ECB HIKES (!) and will follow ECB raising rates.
b: Portuguese banks and spanisch cajas will see mounting defaults of private and commercial
mortgages if rate is hiked by even 25 bp
(in other words Spain is next candidate for huge bank bailouts?)
c: German construction so far balooned by ultra low mortgage rates will be significantly tempered

Basically the official said for SNB ECB hike is just what SNB wants but lethal for weak Ezone peripherals or its their Euro but not our problem
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 21:50
In Thread: EUR
Trichet is unlike Bernanke a professional inflation hawk because the only mandate of ECB is price stability. He needs not care about economy. However the ECB is under political pressure to support economy. But his tenure ends soon. I think ECB will hike 25bp and for outlook use Greenspan FED speak. If he gave hawkish outlook , the EUR reaction may be up to 1.45 in a peak and then back to 1.43 , but Ezone stocks would crash.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 21:15
In Thread: EUR
Portugal asked for bailout ...difficult job for Trichet tomorrow
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