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1999 Posts Total by "cat0nip":
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cat0nip
(Frankfurt, Germany)
72 Posts by Anonymous "cat0nip":
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cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 11:51
In Thread: EUR
Eur relative strength drops hard vs GBP and JPY majors EURJPY 122. 5 to 121.2
very intransparent
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 8:31
In Thread: EUR
ECB must leave deposit rate unaffected or even reduce "official" deposit rate ( the actual is zero anyway) thus fund rate hike does NOT quell inflation.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2011 7:10
In Thread: EUR
Yesterday in Swiss TV an SNB official said a couple of interesting stuff:
a:SNB is VERY interested in ECB HIKES (!) and will follow ECB raising rates.
b: Portuguese banks and spanisch cajas will see mounting defaults of private and commercial
mortgages if rate is hiked by even 25 bp
(in other words Spain is next candidate for huge bank bailouts?)
c: German construction so far balooned by ultra low mortgage rates will be significantly tempered

Basically the official said for SNB ECB hike is just what SNB wants but lethal for weak Ezone peripherals or its their Euro but not our problem
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 21:50
In Thread: EUR
Trichet is unlike Bernanke a professional inflation hawk because the only mandate of ECB is price stability. He needs not care about economy. However the ECB is under political pressure to support economy. But his tenure ends soon. I think ECB will hike 25bp and for outlook use Greenspan FED speak. If he gave hawkish outlook , the EUR reaction may be up to 1.45 in a peak and then back to 1.43 , but Ezone stocks would crash.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 21:15
In Thread: EUR
Portugal asked for bailout ...difficult job for Trichet tomorrow
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 16:38
In Thread: EUR
Everyone short USD short JPY long EUR ........no ECB will hike 25bp but Trichet will not hint more hikes. This is however what fx expects two or three more hikes in 2011.
Imo EUR is "overbought" and if Trichet doesn't hint more hikes ( already 25bp may be disastrous to growth in PIGS) i expect EURUSD selloff, to at least 140.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 15:42
In Thread: EUR
USDx drops hard
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 13:06
In Thread: EUR
FED has intervened at the height of Greece crises with dollar swaps . This is possibly not necessary because Ezone is going towards transfer union. In plain words, one member of the family earns money and far more members live on unemployment benefit checks issued from the well to do uncle. However the uncle didn't want his relatives to earn money.
So Dr.Ben says that's above my head.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 19:55
In Thread: USD
anyway FOMC had no direct hint to QE3 but didn't render it impossible as inflation spike transitory ... i.e. will be gone with the wind some time later... UST yields up despite US treasury
averts selling more debt not to bang head on debt ceiling.
Devoid of hints it hangs now on Trichet ... what if he takes a sick leave ?
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 18:20
In Thread: EUR
wait for FOMC minutes ... dovish stance is priced in USDx
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